Under the impact of oil prices, has the US stock catering sector been sold off excessively? Mizuho claims that there is no concrete evidence of a slowdown in growth.
The sell-off of restaurant stocks triggered by the soaring gasoline prices may be excessive.
The sharp increase in gasoline prices has raised concerns in the market that consumers may cut discretionary spending on certain categories. As a result, stocks in the restaurant industry have taken a steep downturn in the past month. Companies that have seen their stock prices fall include: Wingstop (WING.US) down 33%, Jack in the Box (JACK.US), Venu Holding (VENU.US) down 32%, Dine Brands (DIN.US) down 18%, Bloomin' Brands (BLMN.US) down 16%, The Cheesecake Factory (CAKE.US) down 13%, Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. (CMG.US), Texas Roadhouse, Inc. (TXRH.US) down 9%, McDonald's Corporation (MCD.US), Starbucks Corporation (SBUX.US) down 7%.
However, RBC Securities analyst Nick Setyan has stated that there is currently no clear evidence that rising oil prices will lead to a slowdown in the restaurant industry. Setyan and his team believe that the coffee industry is the most attractive, with Dutch Bros (BROS.US) remaining their top choice. RBC Securities also continues to believe that casual dining companies are in a relatively favorable position, with top picks being The Cheesecake Factory and Restaurant Brands International, Inc. (QSR.US). Meanwhile, Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. is the top choice in the quick service casual dining sector.
If high oil prices continue to put pressure on consumers, RBC Securities believes that fast food chains Wendy's (WEN.US) and Jack in the Box face the greatest risks. Baird has also released similar assessments, pointing out that low-income individuals spend a high proportion of their income on fuel, which means that the recent spike in oil prices effectively amounts to a direct tax on consumers' discretionary spending on eating out, although the double-digit stock price declines may exaggerate this impact.
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