Preview of US Stock Market | The three major stock index futures fell together, oil prices rose sharply, and gold and silver prices fell. Trump's tough stance dealt a heavy blow to expectations of a ceasefire.

Pre-Market Market Trends 1. On April 2 (Thursday), before the U.S. stock market opened, the futures of the three major U.S. stock indices all fell. As of the time of writing, the Dow Jones futures fell by 1.32%, the S&P 500 index futures fell by 1.49%, and the Nasdaq futures fell by 1.98%. 2. As of the time of writing, the German DAX index fell by 2.24%, the UK FTSE 100 index fell by 0.44%, the French CAC40 index fell by 1.31%, and the European Stoxx 50 index fell by 2.23%. 3. As of the time of writing, WTI crude oil rose by 9.66% to $109.79 per barrel. Brent crude oil rose by 7.93% to $109.18 per barrel. Market News Trump's tough stance crushes ceasefire hopes. Trump claimed in a speech on Wednesday evening local time that the U.S. is achieving a "quick, decisive, overwhelming victory" in the conflict with Iran, with core strategic goals "close to being accomplished." Despite this, Trump's warning of possible fierce actions against Iran in the coming weeks has rattled the markets. He stated, "In the next two to three weeks, we will hit them very hard... Negotiations are also taking place." Trump mentioned targeting key Iranian facilities if an agreement is not reached in that time frame. His remarks have dashed hopes of a swift resolution in the Middle East conflict. The yields on 2-year and 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds have risen by nearly 5 basis points, with the 2-year yield at 4.368% and the 10-year yield at 3.846%. The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) rose by 0.6% to 100.25. Gold fell by nearly 3% to $4627.66 per ounce and silver plummeted by over 5% to $70.95 per ounce. War fuels stock market "weekend anxiety"! S&P 500 faces "Black Thursday" curse. In the fifth week of the Middle East conflict, the global economy continues to be impacted, with the U.S. stock market showing a predictable pattern: strong gains at the beginning of the week, followed by narrow fluctuations in the middle, and sharp drops on Thursdays and Fridays. This pattern is particularly evident in the S&P 500 index. Since the conflict began, the index has seen gains in the first three trading days of the week, only to plunge by 9% on Thursday and Friday. Experts explain that over the weekend (or a three-day weekend), when markets are closed, events that could further impact the global economy due to the conflict may occur, particularly considering Trump's tendency to take major actions during market downtime. Therefore, many investors tend to reduce their stock positions nearing the weekend. $100 oil price could persist throughout the year! Bank of America warns: Iran conflict is dropping a "stagflation bomb" on the world. Bank of America analysts predict that due to the impact of the Iran conflict, even if the conflict ends in the next few weeks, the year could still see slower economic growth, rising inflation, and $100 per barrel oil prices. Bank of America economist Claudio Irigoyen and his team wrote in a report on Wednesday, "So far, the 'reward' of the war is mild stagflation," referring to the economic phenomenon of high inflation along with slowing economic growth. If the conflict escalates and drags on, "a significant increase in energy prices, coupled with a significant adjustment in asset prices, could lead to a global economic downturn." Economists still anticipate the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 50 basis points this year, but the timing of these cuts has been pushed from summer to fall, with a recognition that there is a high risk that these cuts may not be achieved. Is gold mistakenly hit by liquidity shock? Standard Chartered predicts: gold prices will rise again and break records. Since the outbreak of the Middle East conflict, gold prices have plummeted. This contradicts the traditional view of gold as a safe-haven asset that provides stability (or appreciation) in times of market turmoil, uncertainty, or political tensions such as the GEO Group Inc. However, Suki Cooper, Standard Chartered's Global Head of Commodities Research, believes that gold is often used as a passive tool for cashing out during crisis and there is usually a suppression period of 4-6 weeks. Although this drop has been more severe, overbought positions have been largely cleared, and its safe-haven status remains stable. Cooper predicts that gold prices will once again challenge historical highs, citing multiple structural drivers for gold, including concerns over high U.S. and global debt, currency devaluation, tariff and trade uncertainty, and risks from the GEO Group Inc. The gold market currently faces multiple risks in pricing, making short-term trends non-linear. Existing liquidity pressures may continue to suppress gold prices for a while, but prices are expected to rise in the coming months. On the downside, the gold price has not fallen below its 200-day moving average since October 2023, providing strong support. The overall direction of the gold market remains upwards. Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. warns: Middle East aluminum production restart faces difficulties, global aluminum prices face long-term rise risk. Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. stated that the Middle East, as an important source of aluminum supply, has a shadow cast over the future outlook for aluminum supply due to the Gulf War. The region currently accounts for one-fifth of global aluminum production outside of China and was expected to expand capacity in the coming years. Trina Chen, Co-Head of Goldman Sachs Group, Inc.'s China Equities Division, stated in an interview that supply disruptions caused by the conflict, including an attack by the Iranian military leading to the shutdown of a large factory, have complicated these expansion plans. Chen said on Thursday, "We expect more smelters to be built in the region due to its energy advantages, to meet global demand growth." However, she added that the situation has become uncertain, increasing the long-term risk of rising aluminum prices. Trump's drug tariff threat looms! Drug companies without low-price agreements may face 100% tariffs. The Trump administration is set to announce as early as Thursday, measures to impose hefty tariffs on pharmaceutical companies that have not reached agreements to ensure low drug prices in the U.S., citing national security reasons. According to sources, companies without agreements and no negotiations with the government will face 100% tariffs. Major pharmaceutical companies that have reached agreements to price drugs lower in the U.S. or invest locally include Pfizer Inc., Astrazeneca PLC Sponsored ADR, Eli Lilly, Novo Nordisk A/S Sponsored ADR Class B, Bristol-Myers Squibb Company, GlaxoSmithKline plc Sponsored ADR, Sanofi, and Novartis AG Sponsored ADR. Trading Tip: Due to Good Friday, the U.S. stock market will be closed on April 3. April 3 (Friday) is Good Friday, and the U.S. stock market will be closed for the day, resuming normal trading on April 6 (Monday). Individual Stock News Rushing ahead of the BOJ rate hike window? Berkshire (BRK.A.US) hires banks to prepare for issuing yen bonds, expected to be completed soon. Berkshire Hathaway has hired banks to arrange its first yen bond issuance since November last year. This move has led to speculation about its investment plans in Japan. Mizuho Securities stated in an email on Thursday that Berkshire has commissioned Mizuho Securities and BofA Securities to prepare for a potential benchmark-sized yen bond issuance. The issuance is expected to be completed soon, depending on market conditions. This bond issuance plan coincides with expectations for the Bank of Japan to further hike interest rates to curb inflation. Market swaps indicate a 70% probability of a rate hike by the Bank of Japan on April 28, with nearly certain expectations of a rate hike before the July policy meeting. KKR (KKR.US) bucks the trend in the industry's winter chill! Raises record $23 billion North American private equity fund. Private equity giant KKR has raised approximately $23 billion for its latest Americas buyout fund, achieving a counter-trend breakthrough amidst the overall decline in the private equity industry due to difficulties in selling assets and returning capital to investors. The fund, named "North America Fund XIV," has exceeded its $20 billion target, becoming the largest fund in terms of scale in the company's history across all strategies. KKR stated in a press release on Thursday that this is also the largest dedicated North American private equity fund raised by any institution to date. Total (TTE.US) and UAE state-owned enterprise Masdar establish $22 billion renewable energy joint venture, with a capacity up to 9GW spanning nine countries. Total and the UAE's renewable energy company Masdar announced on Thursday that they would merge their onshore renewable energy businesses in nine Asian countries to create a $22 billion joint venture. The combined company will have an operating capacity of 3 GW, with an additional 6 GW in late-stage development. Both parties will hold 50% stakes in the Abu Dhabi-based joint venture. These two companies will inject assets of equivalent value into the joint venture, with projects under construction expected to come online by 2030. Following the completion of the transaction, the joint venture will develop, build, own, and operate CECEP Solar Energy, wind, and energy storage projects; consolidating their operations in Azerbaijan, Indonesia, Japan, Kazakhstan, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, South Korea, and Uzbekistan. Important Economic Data and Events Preview 20:30 (Beijing time) Initial Jobless Claims in the U.S. for the week ending March 28 22:15 (Beijing time) Speech by 2026 FOMC Voter and Dallas Fed Chairman Logan.