Trump takes a tough stance on crushing the ceasefire illusion, global market risk aversion sentiment rises again.

Trump threatened to bomb Iran back to the "Stone Age," which has sharply escalated the war situation that has been ongoing for five weeks and shattered investors' hopes for a quick resolution to the conflict. This conflict is squeezing oil supply and exacerbating inflation. Previously, Trump stated that the U.S. military has achieved its objectives in Iran, but he did not provide a specific timetable for ending the conflict. He said that the U.S. would continue to strike targets within Iran in the next two to three weeks. These statements did not convince anxious investors that the conflict in the Middle East is about to end. "I dont think the speech itself was particularly bad, other than the fact that they are going to continue bombing over the next two to three weeks," said Mike Houlahan, director of Auckland's Electus Financial Ltd. "This further extends the deadline to resolving the issue," he said. "The next question is, since he has extended the deadline, confirming that this will take another two to three weeks, will this put additional pressure on the fuel supply chain?" During the Asian session on Thursday, U.S. Treasury bond yields rose as the market feared that rising inflation would stifle any possibility of loose monetary policy. After Trump's speech, the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond yield rose 5 basis points to 4.376%. After Trump's speech earlier this week, investors had hoped that the conflict would end, boosting global stock markets and causing the U.S. dollar to retreat from its recent highs. However, the latest speech revealed the harsh reality of a prolonged war. This means that traders who had been increasing their risk exposures are quickly closing out positions before the long weekend. The interruption of oil supplies and its impact on inflation has always been a major concern in the financial markets, and Trump's remarks on Wednesday did not clarify whether U.S. military action could end before Iran reopens the Strait of Hormuz. The crucial waterway controlled by Iran has sparked the most serious global energy disruption in history. After Trump's speech, the price of the June Brent crude oil futures contract soared by about 5% to $106.16 per barrel. Stonex senior market analyst Matt Simpson said, "With no plan to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, oil prices will remain indefinitely high." The market will have to face the "next round of inflation." Analysts say that Trump's speech and the prospect of a long-term interruption in oil supply could exacerbate market concerns about stagflation. Stagflation, a vicious combination of high inflation and sluggish growth, disrupted the market in March. Toichiro Asada, a new board member of the Bank of Japan, said on Wednesday that Japan could face stagflation risks from the Iran war, and monetary policy may not be able to address this risk. Russel Chesler, head of investment and capital markets at Sydney's Vaneck, said, "The biggest concern for all investors is 'when will this crisis end?', which is causing market volatility. What we are facing now is slowing economic growth, rising inflation expectations, and the situation of stagflation is forming." Although the overall market is expected to remain volatile in the next two to three weeks, investors will closely monitor developments, but analysts expect the U.S. dollar and oil prices to strengthen in the short term as investor risk aversion increases. Since the conflict erupted at the end of February, inflows of safe haven assets have boosted the U.S. dollar exchange rate, and the dollar strengthened against major currencies on Thursday, reversing the previous two-day decline. Carol Kong, currency strategist at the Commonwealth Bank of Australia, said, "The dollar has edged higher... Given our expectation that the war will last until at least June, I believe there is definitely room for further upside in the dollar. Of course, it is difficult to be optimistic about the end of the war, because ultimately, Israel and Iran are the two parties in this war; not just the United States."