Securities: Qatar helium supply shrinks, April may enter substantial shortage window

East Money Information Securities released a research report stating that the control of the Hormuz Strait combined with damage to production facilities has double-impacted Qatar's helium supply, causing a rapid increase in spot prices from around 66 yuan/cubic meter at the end of February to 84 yuan/cubic meter. Inventory buffers are about to be depleted, and by April, there may enter a substantial shortage window, potentially driving gas prices further up. In the background of "rigid downstream demand difficult to replace + weak elasticity of short-term supply," it is recommended to pay attention to Jiangxi Jovo Energy (605090.SH) and Shuifa Gas Co., Ltd. (603318.SH) which have the capacity to produce helium with BOG. Main points of East Money Information Securities are as follows: Event: On March 18 and 19, the Ras Laffan Industrial City in Qatar was attacked again, causing severe damage to the liquefied natural gas facilities and reducing annual helium exports by 14%, with an estimated repair time of 3-5 years. Previously, due to a drone attack from Iran, Qatar Gas Company had suspended the production of liquefied natural gas and "associated products" on March 2 and declared force majeure two days later. Helium consulting companies indicated that the possibility of partial helium production recovery in about six weeks is very low. In 2025, Qatar's helium production accounts for approximately 34% of the global total, and its proven reserves account for 19% of the world's total, with about 62% of China's helium imports coming from Qatar. Helium is an irreplaceable strategic resource, and demand is expected to remain strong Helium has unique properties such as low boiling point (-268.9C/4.2K), superfluid characteristics at ultra-low temperatures (2.2K), chemical inertness, extremely low solubility in water, good thermal conductivity, strong permeability, and high ionization potential. It is widely used in national defense, aerospace, high-end manufacturing, medical, and scientific research fields, crucial for national security, public health, and economic development. Short-term outlook: Inventory buffers are gradually being depleted, and a substantial shortage may be imminent As of March 26, the market price for domestic controlled helium (5N) is around 84 yuan/cubic meter, up 27% (18 yuan/cubic meter) since February 28. The current helium market price has not experienced a significant increase, possibly due to dual buffering from incoming shipments and existing inventory. The Hormuz Strait has been blocked for about 4 weeks, and the shipping period from Qatar to China is usually 20-25 days. The incoming helium shipments are gradually arriving and being consumed. The normal safe inventory level for helium industry is 45-50 days. If the strait remains closed, domestic inventory will enter a rapid consumption phase, making the supply-demand gap more evident and likely pushing gas prices up. Long-term outlook: Qatar's annual helium export volume will be reduced by 14%, with an estimated repair time of 3-5 years, and the supply-demand situation is expected to become tense The production of helium at Ras Laffan Industrial City is dependent on the liquefied natural gas process, making helium production capacity deeply tied to LNG production pace and unable to recover independently. Due to the inability of helium to cope with demand surges through simple production capacity expansion, and with only a storage window of 45-50 days, the supply chain's buffering capacity is extremely fragile. Combined with the rigid growth in downstream demand such as advanced semiconductor processes, the supply gap resulting from facility damage could evolve from a short-term shutdown risk to a medium- to long-term challenge, potentially driving global helium prices to continue fluctuating at high levels. Recommendation: In the background of "rigid downstream demand difficult to replace + weak elasticity of short-term supply," it is suggested to focus on Jiangxi Jovo Energy (605090.SH) (1.5 million cubic meters/year) and Shuifa Gas Co., Ltd. (603318.SH) (200,000 cubic meters/year) with the capacity to produce helium using BOG: they have the ability to control domestic helium production and upstream cost relatively fixed, volume-price double effect. The self-sufficiency in natural gas helium production makes unit cost more controllable, price increases lead to the expansion of unit gross profit, and profitability elasticity can be expected. Risk warning: Geopolitical risks; helium price fluctuations; lower-than-expected downstream demand.