Orient: The Spring Break and Qingming Festival holidays or the possibility of a small long vacation create demand and are expected to help boost outbound travel.
Qingming and May Day are approaching, there may be a small trading holiday during Qingming.
Orient released a research report stating that as of March 23, the search and booking popularity of flights, hotels, homestays, tickets, etc. during the period of April 1-6 (Spring break + Qingming Festival break) increased nearly doubled compared to the same period last year. With the promotion and implementation of the Spring-Autumn break, on the one hand, it can promote medium- to long-distance trips for parent-child groups, creating a new scene of "education + cultural tourism integration"; on the other hand, it is more conducive to smoothing peaks and valleys, promoting off-peak vacations, creating new golden weeks by combining/consecutive holidays, and activating the consumption potential for Spring and Autumn. Qingming Festival and May Day are approaching, and there may be a trend for the Qingming Festival holiday period.
Key points from Orient are as follows:
- Combined Spring break and Qingming Festival holiday break, overall travel booking popularity is increasing.
- Tongcheng released Qingming Festival predictions: 1) As of March 23, the search and booking popularity of flights, hotels, homestays, tickets, etc. during the period of April 1-6 (Spring break + Qingming Festival break) increased nearly doubled compared to the same period last year. 2) The average ticket prices for April 1 and April 2 increased by over 30% compared to the previous week. 3) The 6-day holiday extended travel radius, with a significant increase in booking speed for domestic long-haul flights over 800 kilometers, and a search popularity for international and domestic flights increased by over 50%. 4) Promoting parent-child trips and family trips. As of March 23, the percentage of parent-child groups traveling during Qingming Festival was close to 25%, showing a significant increase compared to previous years.
- Provinces and cities implementing Spring break have higher travel popularity than other places.
- Tongcheng data shows that as of now, provinces such as Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Sichuan, etc. have implemented Spring break pilot programs, and many places have holidays overlapping with Qingming Festival, forming a 6-day mini golden week. Since mid-March, cities such as Nanjing, Suzhou, and Chengdu have seen a significant increase in user travel product booking popularity. Among them, Nanjing has the highest increase in user booking popularity, up 148% year-on-year, while Suzhou and Chengdu have increases of 126% and 113% respectively, leading other cities in the country.
- Continuous policy guidance is conducive to the broader implementation of Spring-Autumn breaks in China.
- On March 30, China Education News Network-China Education Daily (under the Ministry of Education, the only national-level daily newspaper in the education industry in China) published an article "Letting Primary and Secondary School Spring Breaks Play Their Due Value", once again mentioning "For dual-worker families, the Spring break often means "it's easy to arrange vacation but difficult to arrange care", requiring school, family, and community efforts to jointly solve parental care issues." Various departments in Jiangsu Province have successively issued initiatives encouraging employers to arrange staggered vacations for employees during primary and secondary school spring breaks; in many places in Guangdong, while encouraging students to participate in outdoor activities, they also guide schools to simultaneously launch personalized tiered care services. From central ministries to local levels, there is encouragement for the implementation of Spring-Autumn breaks to promote consumption.
Regarding targets:
- In terms of main trends, 1) Listed companies in provinces and cities that have implemented Spring break benefit greatly, with related targets: Jiangsu Tianmu Lake Tourism (603136.SH), Jinling Hotel Corporation (601007.SH), Songcheng Performance Development (300144.SZ), Emei Shan Tourism (000888.SZ). 2) Benefits for national scenic spots and mountains: Huangshan Tourism Development (600054.SH), Guilin Tourism Corporation (000978.SZ). 3) Benefits for national network-based businesses, with related targets: BTG Hotels (600258.SH).
Risk reminders:
- Macroeconomic and household income recovery may be slower than expected, or may suppress discretionary consumption and travel demand; uncertainties in industry and regulatory policy changes may affect the prosperity of sectors such as hotels, scenic areas, duty-free shops, and education; increased competition and rising costs may erode corporate profitability; overall market valuation fluctuations increase, and there is a risk of sectoral adjustments.
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