Oil prices surge by over 5%! Trump threatens to escalate war with Iran in the coming weeks, causing the market to fall back into panic.

Due to the worsening of the geopolitical situation, the global energy market experienced drastic fluctuations on April 2nd (Thursday). During his national television speech on that day, US President Trump explicitly stated that military action against Iran had entered a critical stage, and boldly predicted that the US military would launch "extremely severe" strikes against Iran in the next two to three weeks. He also mentioned that the Strait of Hormuz would naturally reopen after the conflict, but did not provide any details or a clear timetable. This ultimatum-like statement weakened hopes for a quick resolution to the war and prolonged the interruption of energy flow through the key Strait of Hormuz, causing the international benchmark Brent crude oil price to quickly breach the $106 mark, with an intraday increase of over 5%, and US WTI crude oil also reaching a high of $104. Robert Reni, director of commodities research at the Pacific Bank, pointed out that Trump's speech did not change the fundamental reality of the market the strait had actually been closed for a month, and crude oil flow remained severely restricted, with the possibility of further interruptions for at least several weeks or even longer. He added that Brent crude oil was expected to trade in the short term between $95 to $110 per barrel. In the past few days, oil prices fell and the market generally rose after Trump hinted that the Middle East conflict might be resolved in a few weeks. However, the White House speech further increased the uncertainty about the end of the war, as President Trump once again threatened attacks on Iran's oil facilities. The conflict has effectively blocked the Strait of Hormuz, cutting off the supply of crude oil, natural gas, and diesel products to the global market, raising energy prices and sparking concerns about inflation crises. Oil prices rose significantly in March, with Brent crude oil prices still more than 40% higher than before the war. Looking back at the sharp turn in market sentiment, the previous trend had shown a completely different picture. Just a few days ago, due to Trump's hint on social media that Iran might request a ceasefire, there was a brief emotional repair in the market, with global stock markets rebounding and oil prices briefly falling below $100. However, as the Iranian foreign ministry firmly denied the rumors and accused the US of spreading false information, market optimism quickly dissipated. In his subsequent official speech, Trump not only did not send a signal of relief, but openly pressured allies who depend on the Strait of Hormuz to take responsibility for protecting merchant ships and regaining control of the strait, with the US playing only a supporting role. This tough stance, combined with the long-term blockade of the strait, directly triggered investors' extreme fear of a complete interruption of the Middle East's energy artery. Vandana Hari, founder of analysis firm Vanda Insights, said, "The market is now factoring in expectations of a military escalation. Trump did not provide a clear timeline for ending the war, and crude oil had already partially absorbed this expectation."