Ceasefire expected to heat up! Crude oil once fell below the $100 mark, and energy stocks fell across the board.

International oil prices fell noticeably on Wednesday, with investors closely watching the upcoming speech by US President Trump, as the market expects him to announce a plan to end the conflict with Iran in the coming weeks. On that day, Brent crude oil futures fell by 2.7% to $101.16 per barrel, briefly dipping below the $100 mark for the first time since last week; US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures fell by 1.2% to $100.12 per barrel. The main reason for the improved market sentiment is the recent release of more positive signals from the US government about the possibility of the conflict ending. Stifel's Chief Washington Policy Strategist, Brian Gardner, stated that these comments are leading investors to believe that "an end to the conflict is within sight." Earlier in the day, Trump stated on social media that the new Iranian president had requested a ceasefire from the US, and mentioned that the US would only consider arrangements once the Strait of Hormuz was reopened for "open, free, and unimpeded" passage. However, he continued to make firm statements against Iran. Despite this, analysts remain cautious about the prospects for a ceasefire. Some believe that Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi may not have the actual power to independently push forward ceasefire negotiations, and that decisions are still dependent on higher levels. Furthermore, Trump also mentioned in a media interview that he is considering withdrawing the US from NATO, further increasing market concerns about the political uncertainty surrounding GEO Group Inc. Due to the fall in oil prices, energy stocks generally declined, including individual stocks like EOG Resources, Inc. (EOG.US), Occidental Petroleum Corporation (OXY.US), and Diamondback Energy (FANG.US). It is worth noting that oil prices had previously surged significantly. US crude prices rose by 51% in March, marking the largest monthly increase since May 2020. The global economic recovery from the COVID-19 lockdowns combined with significant OPEC+ production cuts had driven oil prices to rebound rapidly. While oil prices have retreated in the short term, the market generally believes that future trends will depend on whether the Strait of Hormuz can reopen for navigation. This waterway carries about 20% of global oil and natural gas transportation before the conflict and is a critical channel for global energy supply. There are reports that the UAE is preparing to assist the US and its allies in military efforts to reopen the strait for navigation. However, the Iranian parliament has approved plans to impose tolls on passing vessels, indicating that even if the conflict ends, oil prices may remain at a high level.