Morgan Stanley warns: If the Iran war continues until June, oil prices could skyrocket to $200!

The Macquarie Group Limited stated that if the Iran war prolongs until June and the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, oil prices could reach a historical high of $200 per barrel. Analysts, including Vicas Devidee, in the organization mentioned in a report that if the conflict continues into the second quarter, it would lead to a historical high in real prices adjusted for inflation, with a 40% probability of this scenario occurring. They also proposed another prediction with a 60% probability, suggesting that the war may end by the end of this month. Due to the impact of the war between the United States, Israel, and Iran, Brent crude oil is expected to set a monthly record increase in March. This conflict has led Iran to almost completely block the Strait of Hormuz, severely restricting the flow of energy that the global economy relies on. The analysts mentioned in the report on March 27th: "If the Strait of Hormuz remains closed for a long time, oil prices must rise to a sufficiently high levelhigh enough to destroy the largest global oil demand in history. In other words, prices need to surge to a level that forces consumers and businesses to greatly reduce oil usage, in order to rebalance supply and demand through demand destruction. The timing of the reopening of the strait and the actual extent of damage to energy infrastructure are the main factors determining the long-term impact on commodities." Brent crude oil closed near $108 per barrel last Friday, having reached a crisis high of $119.50 earlier this month. Data shows that this benchmark oil price hit a nominal peak of $147.50 per barrel in 2008. On Thursday, U.S. President Donald Trump delayed the deadline for attacking Iranian energy facilities for the final time for 10 days, marking the second suspension of the threat of an attack, with the potential strike deadline extended to April 6th. He stated that Iran had allowed 10 oil tankers to pass through the strait as a gesture of goodwill. The analysts from the organization pointed out that the closure of the strait "has driven up both crude oil and refined oil prices due to the massive scale of destruction caused." They noted that before the conflict, around 15 million barrels of crude oil and 5 million barrels of refined oil passed through the waterway daily.