Rystad Energy throws out a "war bill"! The cost of repairing energy infrastructure in the Persian Gulf may exceed $25 billion. Full recovery could take up to five years.

According to a report released by energy consulting firm Rystad Energy on Wednesday, the repair and restoration cost of damaged Persian Gulf energy infrastructure in the Middle East wars may reach at least $25 billion based on preliminary evaluations of affected facilities. As the extent of the damage becomes clearer, this figure is likely to increase further. According to Rystad Energy's analysis, Qatar's Ras Laffan liquefied natural gas (LNG) and Pearl gas-to-liquids (GTL) facilities, Iran's South Pars offshore gas field, and Bahrain's Sitra refinery are among the top in terms of repair intensity and repair time, while Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE have experienced moderate to mild disruptions. The Ras Laffan complex - which accounts for 5% of global natural gas production and 20% of global LNG production - is a "clear outlier," with the loss of the S4 and S6 LNG production lines triggering force majeure clauses, resulting in a capacity reduction of around 17%, equivalent to a decrease of 12.8 million tons of LNG production annually. Audun Martinsen, head of supply chain research at Rystad Energy, said that the restoration work not only requires funding, as "the recovery in the Gulf region will be more determined by structural constraints rather than financial capital." He stated, "Some assets may be restored in a matter of months, but others may take several years to come back online." For example, the global supply of gas turbines needed to repair the Ras Laffan LNG facility is very limited, and these suppliers currently have production backlogs, meaning full recovery could take up to five years. Ajay Parmar of energy intelligence company ICIS said in a report, "Some in the market thought this would be a very short war, which is why oil prices stayed below $100 a barrel for quite a few days after the war started." But Iran's resistance lasted longer than many expected. Parmar added that the reserves established by China last year have helped support the oil market, and in the current tight supply situation, as well as potential emergency oil releases by the International Energy Agency and waivers of U.S. sanctions on Russian and Iranian oil, could help lower oil prices.