Preview of US Stock Market | "Four witches' day" is approaching! The United States seeks multiple measures to suppress oil prices, Wall Street warns that oil prices will continue to soar.

Pre-Market Market Trends 1. In pre-market trading on Friday, March 20th, the futures of the three major US stock indices all fell. As of the time of writing, Dow futures were down 0.31%, S&P 500 futures were down 0.32%, and Nasdaq futures were down 0.45%. 2. At the time of writing, the Germany DAX index was up 0.07%, the UK FTSE 100 index was up 0.11%, the France CAC 40 index was up 0.17%, and the European Stoxx 50 index was up 0.32%. 3. At the time of writing, WTI crude oil was down 1.34% at $94.27 per barrel. Brent crude oil was down 1.59% at $106.92 per barrel. Market News Record $5.7 trillion "Quadruple Witching Day" pressure on US stocks! As tensions escalate in the Middle East, a storm of volatility is brewing. According to data from Citigroup dating back to 1996, Friday will see approximately $5.7 trillion in options expiring, linked to US stocks, indices, and exchange-traded funds - the largest expiration value in March in years, a quarterly event known as "Quadruple Witching Day" by traders, although now more accurately referred to as "Triple Witching Day." This nominal options expiration figure includes $4.1 trillion worth of index contracts, $772 billion of ETF contracts, and $875 billion of single stock options. This event typically forces traders to unwind, roll over, or rebalance their positions on a large scale, and has long been seen as potentially triggering sudden and drastic fluctuations in asset prices as large derivative exposures vanish. Statistics from Goldman Sachs Group, Inc.'s Prime Book show that current US positions are very fragile, with downward moves to be amplified and bullish moves to be met with short covering. Trump considering risky move to seize Halco Island, forcing Iran to reopen strait. According to four sources familiar with the matter, the Trump administration is reportedly considering taking action to occupy or blockade Iran's Halco Island to force Iran to reopen the Hormuz Strait. In order to end the war on his own terms, Trump would need to first break Iran's control over shipping through the strait. However, capturing the island could potentially put US forces directly in the line of fire. Therefore, such action would only be initiated after further weakening Iran's military capabilities around the Hormuz Strait through a series of strikes. "We need about a month to further weaken Iran's strength through a series of actions, capture the island, subdue them completely, and use this opportunity to negotiate," said one source. If approved, such action would require more troops. US issues sanctions-related license for Russian oil. The US Treasury announced the issuance of a new general license related to Russia, allowing the delivery and sale of Russian-origin crude oil and petroleum products loaded onto vessels prior to March 12. The authorization is valid until April 11, 2026, at 00:01 Eastern Time. While the main terms remained consistent with the previously issued license on March 12, the new exemption explicitly excludes transactions involving North Korea, Cuba, and Crimea. Temporary easing of sanctions on Russian oil is part of the Trump administration's efforts to temper the surge in energy prices due to the Middle East conflict. US and Israel send signals of easing tensions, European natural gas prices spike then fall back. After gas fields were attacked, Iran retaliated against oil and gas assets across the Middle East. Previously, the Ras Laffan Industrial City in Qatar was hit by missile attacks, damaging two liquified natural gas production lines. These two production lines have a combined annual capacity of 12.8 million tons, approximately 17% of Qatar's liquefied natural gas export volume, with repairs possibly taking up to five years to complete. This move boosted oil prices and drew condemnation from US President Trump, while Israel pledged not to target energy infrastructure. Following efforts by Israel and the US to alleviate concerns of further attacks on Persian Gulf energy facilities, European natural gas prices fell. Benchmark futures briefly dropped by 3% on Friday. Persistent inflation worries as US bond yields continue to climb. Influenced by hawkish remarks from central banks and Brent crude oil holding steady above $100 per barrel, US bond yields continued their climb on Friday. The two-year US Treasury yield rose by 4 basis points to 3.83%, while the five-year yield rose by 3 basis points to 3.91%. As oil prices surged, market participants revised down expectations for a Fed rate cut later this year. Prior to the outbreak of the Iran war, swap traders priced in a 61 basis point cut by the Fed; now, that expectation has dropped to just 3 basis points. After Qatar facilities were attacked, multiple parties turn to seek long-term contracts with the US. Following the recent attack on a major liquified natural gas facility in Qatar, global LNG supply tensions have increased. More and more buyers and importers are turning to the US to ensure access to liquified natural gas, with companies looking to import LNG directly contacting US fuel sellers, including producers and purchasers under long-term contracts. These sellers are expected to supply from existing and under-construction projects. The US is the world's largest exporter of LNG and plans to expand its export capacity through various planned or ongoing projects. Discussions about potential US LNG supply agreements are still in the early stages, with terms of any long-term contracts requiring negotiation. Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. warns: oil prices may stay above $100 long-term, potentially surpassing 2008 peak. Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. stated on Thursday that the risks for oil prices remain skewed to the upside in the short term and through 2027. The bank added that the continued presence of large supply shocks in the past has highlighted the possibility of oil prices staying above $100 per barrel. Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. noted that as long as oil transport through the Hormuz Strait remains restricted in the short term, oil prices may continue to rise. The bank also pointed out that if the disruption risks persist, Brent crude oil prices could exceed their 2008 peak of $147.5 per barrel, setting a new high. Bank of America warns: if the Hormuz Strait cannot reopen in a few days, oil prices could soar to $200. Francisco Blanch, head of commodities and derivatives research at Bank of America Securities, issued a stern warning that the chokepoint connecting the Gulf and global markets - the Hormuz Strait - must be reopened within a matter of days, not weeks. The analyst pointed out that if the strait remains closed for months, the global economy will inevitably slide into a deep recession, with Brent and WTI crude oil prices likely skyrocketing to over $200 per barrel. The core logic behind this extreme forecast lies in the severe mismatch between energy supply gaps and global growth patterns - for every 1% increase in global GDP, an equivalent 1% increase in energy supply is typically needed. Current monitoring data shows that the supply gap due to the Iran conflict and strait closure has reached 8%. Stock News Chinese manufacturing becomes a crucial player! Reports suggest Tesla, Inc. (TSLA.US) is considering a $2.9 billion purchase of equipment from China's CECEP Solar Energy. According to two sources familiar with the matter, Tesla, Inc. is seeking to purchase $2.9 billion worth of CECEP Solar Energy battery panel and cell production equipment from Chinese suppliers, including Suzhou Maxwell Technologies. Musk's goal is to increase CECEP Solar Energy's installed capacity by 100 GW in the US. Musk stated in January this year that CECEP Solar Energy could meet all of the US's power needs, including those from a growing number of data centers. Job postings on Tesla, Inc.'s website indicate their goal is to deploy 100 GW of CECEP Solar Energy manufacturing capacity in the US by the end of 2028. GEO Group Inc conflict-free, restructuring strategy pays off! FedEx Corporation (FDX.US) shows strong performance and outlook. As a barometer of global logistics demand, FedEx Corporation's reported performance for the third quarter (ending February 28) exceeded Wall Street's expectations. Adjusted earnings per share stood at $5.25, far surpassing analysts' average estimate of $4.14; quarterly revenue reached $24 billion, also higher than the expected $23.43 billion. Based on the strong performance, FedEx Corporation raised its full-year adjusted profit forecast for the fiscal year ending May 31, 2026, to between $19.30 and $20.10 per share, significantly higher than the previously predicted range of $17.80 to $19.00, and surpassing the market expectation of $18.69. Novartis AG Sponsored ADR (NVS.US) to acquire Synnovation Therapeutics' breast cancer drug assets for $3 billion. Novartis AG Sponsored ADR has agreed to acquire an experimental breast cancer drug from Synnovation Therapeutics for up to $3 billion to strengthen its oncology product pipeline. According to a statement released on Friday, the Swiss pharmaceutical giant will pay an initial $2 billion and up to $1 billion in milestone payments for the acquisition of Pikavation Therapeutics, which is developing the potential therapy. The deal is expected to be completed in the first half of this year, pending regulatory approval. Alphabet Inc. Class C (GOOGL.US) secretly testing Gemini for Mac, three AI giants in positive competition within Apple Inc.'s ecosystem. Alphabet Inc. Class C is stepping up efforts to develop a dedicated Gemini AI application for Apple Inc.'s Mac computer series to compete with OpenAI and Anthropic. Alphabet Inc. Class C, a subsidiary of Alphabet, began privately sharing early versions of the app with members participating in the consumer beta testing program this week. This allows Alphabet Inc. Class C to gather feedback from non-employee users on the soon-to-be released software, helping the company identify any bugs before the public release. This move is part of AI companies' ongoing efforts to push their chatbots, such as OpenAI's ChatGPT and Anthropic's Claude, to as wide an audience as possible on Mac platforms. Important Economic Data and Events Forecast CFTC will release the weekly Commitments of Traders report at 3:30 am Beijing time the next day.