Brokerage morning meeting highlights | Coal production drops, demand increases, the narrative is clear, and the space is wide open.
At today's securities morning meeting, CITIC Construction Investment believes that the power shortage in North America is difficult to resolve, and energy storage and grid construction will quickly replicate the boom of thermal power generation; Guosheng Securities believes that with the decrease in coal production and increasing demand, the situation is clear and there is a large room for development.
Yesterday, the three major indexes collectively closed in the red, with the Shanghai Composite Index ending its four-day decline, the Shenzhen Component Index rising by over 1%, and the ChiNext Index increasing by over 2%. The trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 2.05 trillion yuan. In terms of sectors, concepts such as CPO, liquid-cooled servers, computing power leasing, computing and electricity synergy, and storage chips rose. On the downside, oil and gas stocks weakened, while the chemical sector declined. At the close, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.32%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 1.05%, and the ChiNext Index rose by 2.02%.
At today's brokerage morning meeting, China Securities Co., Ltd. believes that the power shortage in North America is accumulating and difficult to reverse. Energy storage and grid construction will soon replicate the prosperity of gas turbines. Guosheng believes that with the decrease in coal production and increased demand, the narrative is clear and there is great potential.
China Securities Co., Ltd.: The power shortage in North America is accumulating and difficult to reverse, energy storage and grid construction will soon replicate the prosperity of gas turbines
Currently, North America's power system faces problems such as a long grid connection period, aging and retiring of power/grid equipment, and insufficient reserve capacity. The explosive demand for AIDC will lead to a power shortage in the North American grid reaching 39.9, 51.8, and 67.8 GW in 2026-2028. Gas turbines, energy storage, and grid equipment will gradually become the core beneficiaries and will soon become a reality. The current market only recognizes the prosperity of gas turbines, but it is predicted that in six months to a year, grid investment and energy storage construction will start to increase continuously. The profit volume in North America far outweighs that of other regions around the world, and it is optimistic about the elasticity of the related industrial chain.
Guosheng: With the decrease in coal production and increased demand, the narrative is clear and there is great potential
The core of this round of trading lies in overseas markets, where a "black swan" event has occurred, causing overseas prices to soar. Only with this occurrence can the imagination space for domestic coal prices completely open up. In the short term, domestic coal prices continue to show seasonal weakness as expected, but do not worry, as the adjustment space is very limited. Once the market has time to digest the recent price increase, influenced by the continuous rise in overseas prices, expectations in the domestic market will gradually change. As the domestic replenishment cycle approaches, coal prices are expected to hit the thousand yuan mark.
This article is reprinted from "Cai Lianshe", edited by GMTEight: Huang Xiaodong.
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