Preview of US Stock Market | The three major stock index futures rise together as the escalation of Middle East conflicts coincides with a "super central bank week," causing the stock market to potentially experience record volatility.

Pre-market market trends 1. Before the opening of the US stock market on March 16 (Monday), the futures of the three major US stock indexes rose. As of the time of writing, Nasdaq futures were up 1.13%, S&P 500 index futures were up 1.00%, and Dow futures were up 0.79%. 2. As of the time of writing, the German DAX index rose 0.60%, the UK FTSE 100 index rose 0.58%, the French CAC 40 index rose 0.14%, and the European Stoxx 50 index rose 0.39%. 3. As of the time of writing, WTI crude oil fell 1.43% to $95.46 per barrel. Brent crude oil fell 0.28% to $102.85 per barrel. Market news Escalation of Middle East conflicts coincides with "Super Central Bank Week", AI faith faces major test! Since the US-Israeli airstrikes on Iran at the end of February ignited a new round of political storm in the Middle East, market volatility has intensified. This rare volatile market situation may intensify during this week. Following Trump's announcement that the US military had launched "fierce airstrikes" on military targets on Harak Island in Iran, tensions in the Middle East continue to escalate, and it cannot be ruled out that Iran may take more aggressive measures to retaliate. The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and oil-producing Gulf countries being forced to reduce production may drive international oil prices towards $150 or even $200. Meanwhile, the "Super Central Bank Week" will require investors to "prepare for consecutive days of volatile market conditions". Global central banks such as the Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan, the Bank of England, the Reserve Bank of Australia, and the Bank of Canada will announce the latest round of interest rate decisions this week, amidst the current macroeconomic environment of "stagflation" and prevailing pessimism, they will also announce their latest monetary policy guidance. In addition, the AI faith, which is crucial for the global tech stock market, faces a major test this week NVIDIA Corporation's GTC conference and the Global Optical Communications Conference (OFC) will kick off, and storage giant Micron Technology, Inc. will also announce its financial report this week. "Quadruple Witching" is coming! Are US stocks about to experience record volatility? The "Quadruple Witching" in the US stock market the day when stock index futures and options, as well as individual stock options and futures, all expire is set to make a significant impact this Friday. US stocks usually experience unusually volatile fluctuations on "Quadruple Witching" days. With the uncertainties in the Middle East conflict, high oil prices, and the concentration of derivatives expiring this week, the US stock market may experience record volatility on Quadruple Witching day, and global stock market volatility will also intensify along with the US stock market. A recent research report released by Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. shows that the current US stock market is teetering on the brink of a "collapse" and "short squeeze", indicating that global stock market volatility since the new Middle East political superstorm triggered by the US/Israeli airstrikes on Iran at the end of February, may become even more intense. Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. sets the tone for the US stock market: Earnings expansion supports upside potential, the S&P 500 index is expected to reach 7600 points by the end of the year. According to strategists at Goldman Sachs Group, Inc., the US stock market still has room for upside potential. By the end of 2026, driven by continued corporate earnings expansion and moderate economic growth, the S&P 500 index is expected to climb to 7600 points. This forecast is based on a deep analysis of the earnings prospects of component companies the bank further estimates that the earnings per share of S&P 500 component companies will increase to around $309 by 2026, and further rise to around $342 by 2027, corresponding to an annual growth rate of around 12% and 10%, respectively. This earnings growth will support the corresponding price target, with a potential return rate of about 14% from current levels. This outlook reflects the market's confidence that corporate profitability will continue to expand even if interest rates remain high and the financial environment is slightly tighter. Additionally, tech companies remain the core engine of earnings growth in the US stock market. If oil prices remain high, could the S&P 500 fall by 15%? JPMorgan warns of a "domino effect". JPMorgan Private Bank stated that if oil prices do not fall, the recent selloff in the S&P 500 index might deepen further. The bank's researchers said in a report to clients that they believe that rising oil prices could pose a risk of a "domino effect" in the stock market, meaning that as oil prices remain high, selling pressure on the stock market continues to increase, the downturn in the US market spreads globally, and ultimately impacts economic growth. The report stated that if oil prices remain above $90 per barrel for an extended period, the S&P 500 index could experience a 10% to 15% pullback, with spillover effects on international and emerging markets. The 60/40 investment strategy becomes ineffective under inflation pressure! Wall Street big shots call for embracing commodities. Peter Buchwald, Chief Investment Officer of investment advisory firm One Point BFG Wealth Partners, stated that traditional 60/40 investment portfolio strategies are becoming ineffective as inflation pressures caused by rising energy prices weaken the protective effect of bonds. Buchwald pointed out that the 40% bond allocation in the portfolio has failed to provide hedge protection in recent weeks. The rise in energy prices due to the Middle East conflict has raised concerns in the market about inflation expectations, becoming the new logic that dominates the global bond market. For investors seeking alternatives to bonds, Buchwald recommends turning to commodities. The commodity bull market that began in 2025 initially focused on precious metals and industrial metals, but has now expanded to include oil, natural gas, and agriculture with the agricultural sector benefiting from disruptions in fertilizer and ammonia supplies. Gold trapped in a rare bull-bear struggle, direction may depend on one word from Powell! Gold investors are about to face the most important week of the year. The Federal Reserve will hold a meeting on March 17 and 18. Fed Chairman Powell's remarks this week could lead to significant price swings in gold in either direction. Pressured by a stronger US dollar, gold prices have been on a downward trend over the past two weeks. As of the time of writing, spot gold was hovering near the $5000 mark. Analysts at JPMorgan described the current situation as a "collision of geopolitical concerns and a rebound in the strength of the US dollar". This rare situation makes it extremely difficult to predict the short-term trajectory of gold. Analysts generally agree that Powell's language and the interest rate decision itself are equally important. The words he uses to describe the impact of oil prices whether he uses terms like "temporary" or "sustained" could push gold prices up or down by hundreds of dollars in a single trading day. Blockage of the Strait of Hormuz affects global aluminum market! Bahrain Aluminum forced to reduce production by 19%, aluminum prices may exceed $4000. Due to the disruption of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world's largest individual smelters Bahrain Aluminum (Alba) has been forced to initiate production cuts due to the double pressure of blocked metal exports and limited raw material supplies earlier this month. The company has now intermittently closed three of its main production lines, directly affecting about 19% of its annual production capacity. As one of the core supply regions for the global aluminum industry, logistics disruptions in the Middle East have turned into substantial production reductions. International financial institutions such as Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. believe that if the closure of the Middle Eastern waterway continues and depletes inventories in the region, aluminum prices are likely to break through the key level of $4000 per metric ton, thereby having a profound impact on the cost structure of downstream manufacturing industries. As of the time of writing, LME aluminum futures were at $3390 per metric ton, reaching a high of $3494.50 per metric ton during the day. Stock news NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA.US) GTC conference kicks off! Will the AI giant maintain its dominance, the market closely watches the new strategy for the "post-training era". The NVIDIA Corporation GTC 2026 conference will be held in San Jose, California from March 16 to 19. NVIDIA Corporation CEO Jensen Huang will deliver a keynote speech at 2:00 pm on March 16 Eastern Time. The four-day GTC conference is not only a stage for NVIDIA Corporation to showcase its latest advancements in chip technology, data centers, software platforms such as CUDA, AI agents, and physical AI in fields like Siasun Robot & Automation, but also a critical test of the company's strategic direction. After delivering better-than-expected financial results but failing to significantly boost its stock price, investors are eager for reassurance that NVIDIA Corporation's strategy of bringing profits back to the AI ecosystem is proving effective. Market research firm eMarketer analyst Jacob Bourne said, "I expect NVIDIA Corporation to present updates from Rubin to Feynman's full-stack roadmap, focusing on inference, intelligent agents AI, Network-1 Technologies, Inc., and AI factory infrastructure." GF Securities believes that this event may not only be a catalyst for NVIDIA Corporation, but also for the entire semiconductor sector. Rumor: Meta (META.US) plans to lay off 20% of its workforce: Optimizing workforce structure with "AI substitution" to support massive capital expenditures. Meta is reportedly planning to launch a large-scale layoff plan that may affect 20% or more of its employees, involving approximately 16,000 job positions. The company aims to offset its high investments in AI and prepare for further efficiency improvements brought about by AI-assisted employees. It is reported that Meta plans to invest up to $600 billion in AI capital expenditures by 2028. According to reports from three sources familiar with the matter, the company has not yet finalized the date of the layoffs, and the scale of the layoffs has not been determined. Two of them said that the senior management of Meta has recently communicated this plan in discussions with other senior leaders and requested them to start planning how to proceed with the layoffs. Despite Meta's commitment to transitioning to an "AI-driven" business, its core model has recently faced significant setbacks in research and development, further intensifying internal restructuring pressure. US retail industry shows signs of cooling: Following Daler and Walmart Inc., Dollar Tree, Inc. (DLTR.US) issues weak guidance. US discount retailer Dollar Tree, Inc. announced its fourth-quarter financial performance. Dollar Tree, Inc. saw fourth-quarter revenue rise 9% year-over-year to $5.5 billion, surpassing expectations; adjusted earnings per share were $2.56, beating expectations by 4 cents. The company stated that the increase in transactions boosted performance. Dollar Tree, Inc.'s low-price strategy resonated with consumers facing economic pressures. The retailer's products even helped attract more high-income customers. However, Dollar Tree, Inc. provided a mixed outlook for the year, casting some doubt on its ability to continue winning consumer favor with low prices. The company expects sales to reach $20.5 billion to $20.7 billion by 2026, slightly below expectations; adjusted diluted earnings per share are expected to range between $6.50 and $6.90, with the midpoint being consistent with expectations. This suggests that, like its competitor Dollar General Corporation, Dollar Tree, Inc. predicts soft sales for the year, as consumers remain frugal amid increasing macroeconomic volatility. Niu Technologies Sponsored ADR Class A (NIU.US) Q4 revenue exceeds expectations, Q1 guidance signals strong growth. Niu Technologies Sponsored ADR Class A released its fourth-quarter financial performance. Q4 revenue was 676.2 million RMB (approximately $967 million, down 17.4% year-over-year), exceeding expectations by $5.65 million. Basic and diluted loss per ADS was 1.1 RMB (about $0.16). Electric scooter sales were 172,763 units, down 23.8% year-over-year. Of these, electric scooter sales in China were 158,782 units, down 12.9% year-over-year; international market electric scooter sales were 13,981 units, down 68.4% year-over-year. Looking ahead, Niu Technologies Sponsored ADR Class A expects first-quarter revenue in 2026 to range between 887 million and 1.023 billion RMB, a year-over-year growth of 30% to 50%; the full-year sales volume in 2026 is expected to range between 1.7 million and 1.9 million units, a year-over-year growth of about 40% to 60%. As of the time of writing, Niu Technologies Sponsored ADR Class A was up over 4% in pre-market trading on Monday. Earnings forecast Tuesday Morning: FinVolution Group Sponsored ADR Class A (FINV.US) Tuesday Pre-market: GDS Holdings Ltd. Sponsored ADR Class A (GDS.US), Tencent Music Entertainment Group Sponsored ADR Class A (TME.US), HUYA, Inc. Sponsored ADR Class A (HUYA.US), 36Kr Holdings Inc ADR Class A (KRKR.US)