Preparing for more intense volatility? Markets focus on Sino-US relations, Middle East conflict escalating during "Super Central Bank Week"! "AI Faith" also faces a major test.

Since the end of February, when the US/Israel airstrikes on Iran set off a new round of political superstorms in the Middle East, global stock markets have been facing more intense volatility. The situation is further complicated by the substantial blockade in the Strait of Hormuz, leading to a "chain reaction of surges and plunges" in the market. This rare volatility in recent years is expected to intensify this week. China and the US will hold the sixth round of economic and trade negotiations in Paris, which is crucial for global trade and economic growth trends. The two countries will lead the discussions on economic and trade issues of mutual concern based on important consensus reached in past meetings between their leaders. This week, China's industrial, social retail, and investment data for January and February will be released, attracting global investors who are eager to verify the economic performance and holiday consumption season in China. The State Council Information Office will hold a press conference on the national economic situation, which will also attract the attention of global investors. After President Trump claimed that the US military had carried out a "fierce airstrike" on Iran's oil export Hub Group, Inc. in Kharg Island, the political situation in the Middle East has rapidly escalated. There is a possibility that Iran may take more aggressive actions in retaliation, leading to disruptions in the shipping in the Hormuz Strait and potential disruption in oil supply from Gulf oil-producing countries, driving international oil prices towards $150 or even $200. At the same time, the "super central bank week" will trigger investors to prepare for the volatile financial market. Several global central banks, including the Fed, ECB, Bank of Japan, Bank of England, Reserve Bank of Australia, and Bank of Canada, will announce their latest round of interest rate decisions and monetary policy guidance. With the start of NVIDIA Corporation's GTC conference and the Optical Fiber Communication Conference (OFC) this week, as well as the performance announcements of Alibaba Group, Tencent, and leading storage chip companies such as Micron, the "AI faith" that influences the global tech stock market is facing a major test. The outcome of this highly anticipated test will have a significant impact on the tech stock super bull market trend in the US and global stock markets. In addition, the "quadruple witching day" in the US stock market will occur on Friday, where stock index futures and options, as well as individual stock options and futures, will all expire. It is expected that the US stock market will experience unusually high volatility on this day, especially with multiple major events this week contributing to market turbulence. The high volatility is a common enemy for all professional traders, especially in the current environment. The intense volatility is expected to persist in the short term, making it more difficult to predict market directions and increasing hedging costs, reducing holding tolerance, compressing leverage efficiency, and possibly leading to incorrect fundamental judgments. Traders are now facing not just a single trend but a combination of challenges, including oil price spikes, frequent market reversals, and multiple noise sources stemming from hedge funds and AI panic. International oil prices have stabilized above $100 per barrel, with the market already looking towards breaking the $150 and even $200 barriers. The recent bombing of Kharg Island, which is crucial for Irans oil exports, has intensified conflict in the GEO Group Inc. region, leading to the most significant oil supply disruption in the global oil market. The strategic Strait of Hormuz, which connects the Persian Gulf to international markets, has almost come to a standstill since the conflict erupted. Wood Mackenzie stated on March 10th that the current conflict in Iran has caused a reduction of around 15 million barrels per day in Gulf oil and petroleum supplies, requiring Brent oil prices to rise to at least $150 in the near future to balance the global demand of around 105 million barrels per day. The organization even mentioned the possibility of oil prices reaching $200 by 2026. Analysts are concerned that if the strait remains blocked, international oil prices will continue to rise and stay at historical highs for a longer period. As the conflict in Iran shows no signs of abating after three weeks, the vital Strait of Hormuz, a crucial channel for global energy transportation, remains stagnant. Under normal circumstances, approximately 15-20 million barrels of oil pass through this 21-mile-wide waterway every day. The Iranian Revolutionary Guard has stated that they will not allow a drop of oil to go through. The Iranian Foreign Minister, Mohammad Javad Zarif, has stated that the end of the war depends on two conditions: ensuring that the war does not repeat itself and paying compensation. He also mentioned that Iran is willing to talk to countries that are interested in dialogues about the safe passage of their ships through the Strait of Hormuz, with several countries already reaching out to Iran to ensure the safety of their vessels. If the strait cannot be reopened, Wall Street strategists have stated that international oil prices will continue to rise and remain at historically high levels for a longer period. The market has already begun discussing $150 as a potential target, with $200 being considered as an extreme scenario. In the midst of "stagflation" concerns, central bank officials will release their views on monetary policy and future economic trends this week. The US, European, British, and Japanese central banks are expected to maintain their rates, but the risks posed by energy prices may bring the option of a rate hike in Japan back into focus. Analysts have revised their expectations for the Reserve Bank of Australia's actions, expecting an interest rate hike this week. The "AI bull market narrative" is facing a critical validation point this week as it goes through a significant test. The outcome of this test will have a substantial impact on the US stock market and the MSCI global stock market index's super bull market trend.