Brent stabilizes at $103, WTI approaches $100! The US strikes Iranian oil hubs, igniting a new round of price increases in the global oil market.

After the attack on Iran's core crude oil export hub Kharg Island oil facilities in the United States, international oil prices surged by 3.3% in intraday trading. This military action marks a significant escalation of conflict in the region. Due to the ongoing conflict, energy-consuming countries around the world have been forced to cut off contact with the energy supply from the region for up to two weeks. After Brent crude prices soared by over 40% in the past two weeks, the current trading price is around $105 per barrel, while WTI crude prices are nearing $100 per barrel. Following the US attack on Iran's Kharg Island military facilities, the Islamic Republic of Iran promptly launched retaliatory strikes against Israel and Arab countries. As a key hub for Iran's oil exports, Kharg Island bears the responsibility for most of the country's crude oil transport tasks. The bombing of Kharg Island has significantly expanded the scale of the geopolitical conflict in the region. The International Energy Agency released a report last week indicating that this round of conflict has caused the most serious supply disruption in the global oil market in history. The strategic waterway connecting the Persian Gulf to international markets, the Strait of Hormuz, has seen almost complete shutdown of shipping since the outbreak of the conflict. Warren Patterson, head of commodities strategy at the Dutch International Group, analyzed, "Although the attack on Kharg Island has not directly damaged the oil infrastructure, supply-side risks continue to accumulate. Any further interruptions in transportation will further tighten market supply and demand." US attacks on Kharg Island US President Trump issued a strong warning: if Iran continues to block the Strait of Hormuz shipping channel, the US will take action against Iranian oil assets. In response, Iran stated that oil exports from Kharg Island are still proceeding normally. Meanwhile, intelligence indicates that certain areas with US military presence in Doha and Dubai may be targeted in the next few hours. According to a senior aide to President Trump, the US Department of Defense estimates that the ongoing three-week conflict with Iran is expected to last four to six more weeks. Kevin Hassett, director of the White House National Economic Council, emphasized that the final decision on when the war ends still lies with the president. Over the weekend, Trump signaled a willingness to resolve the conflict through negotiation. However, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi explicitly stated that the Islamic Republic is currently not interested in negotiations or seeking a ceasefire. Trump further intensified diplomatic pressure, publicly calling for the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz shipping channel and urging allies to send warships to participate in escort missions. According to insiders, the US government is planning to announce that multiple countries have agreed to form a multinational joint escort alliance, but discussions are ongoing about the timing of deploying the escort operation - the dispute is whether to deploy before hostilities end or wait until the conflict is resolved. In the UAE, the key energy hub of Fujairah Port had its shipping operations interrupted last Saturday due to a drone attack. With the Strait of Hormuz still closed, this attack cut off the UAE's only crude oil export channel. Fortunately, after emergency repairs, port operations have fully resumed as of last Sunday. As a significant sign of war squeezing global oil supply, the International Energy Agency clearly stated last Sunday that it will immediately release unprecedented oil reserves to Asia. The agency, before issuing the statement, received detailed implementation guidelines for the record-breaking release of 400 million barrels of crude oil reserves announced last week. "Most of the geopolitical risk premium has already been reflected in oil prices last week," analyzed Harris Kursheed, Chief Investment Officer at Chicago's Karobaar Capital LP. He further added that, "Therefore, traders are generally adopting a wait-and-see attitude, waiting for more concrete evidence of actual supply losses before substantial price increases." He further added that, following the attack on Kharg Island, "market dynamics show that current pricing is more about pricing in the risk of supply interruptions, rather than a comprehensive supply impact." As of the time of writing, Brent crude for May delivery rose by 0.58% to $103.74 per barrel. May WTI crude rose by 0.15% to $96.99 per barrel.