Halk Island is attacked! Trump launches an "attack to promote peace" offensive, global oil lifeline sounds the alarm again.

Notice that the United States launched a large-scale attack on the islands from which Iran exports most of its crude oil, sparking concerns in the market about a broader disruption in the region's supply, further exacerbating the already troubled oil and gas market in the Middle East amid two weeks of escalating conflicts. On Friday, U.S. President Trump posted on his Truth Social account that the U.S. bombed military targets on Kharg Island in the Persian Gulf, but avoided the oil infrastructure. He warned Iranian leaders that if they interfere with ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz, he will immediately reconsider this decision. Iran responded, stating that any attacks on oil and energy infrastructure would lead to attacks on U.S.-related energy facilities in the region. Although both sides have not reported any evidence of damage to energy infrastructure, the attack has heightened the oil risks in a conflict that previously impacted production and nearly closed the Strait of Hormuz, causing crude oil prices to spike by over 40%. The International Energy Agency (IEA) stated this week that this war has caused the largest supply disruption in the history of the oil market. Iran heavily relies on Kharg Island, where around 9 out of every 10 barrels of exported crude oil are processed, with the majority ultimately going to China. Rachel Zimba, Senior Research Analyst at the New American Security Center, stated, "This is Trump trying to coerce deescalation through escalation," "The biggest risk to the oil market and the war is whether Iran will retaliate." Natasha Kaneva, an analyst at JPMorgan, and others wrote in a report released after the attack that, without further strikes and if the island's loading docks, oil storage tanks, and pipelines remain intact, the impact on oil supply could be quite limited. This would maintain the country's export capacity at around 1.5 to 1.7 million barrels per day. However, this raises the stakes in a conflict that had largely avoided oil infrastructure in the region so far. JPMorgan analysts stated that Saudi Arabia's Ras Tanura export terminal and Abqaiq processing center, as well as the Fujairah oil hub in the United Arab Emirates, are considered "critical and highly vulnerable energy nodes." During the Iran war, oil prices soared by over 40%. In an early report on March 8, JPMorgan stated that if Kharg Island were forced offline, it would quickly trigger upstream production cuts and put up to half of Iran's oil production at risk. The bank stated that it had previously expected Iran to be one of the last Gulf oil-producing countries to stop production, but now its shutdown progress could exceed that of Kuwait and the UAE. "I suspect that there will be hesitation to load cargoes when the threat of such a direct military attack from the U.S. looms over the island," said Bob McNally, President of the Washington consultancy Rapidan Energy Group. "Especially if Iran continues to disrupt traffic through the Strait of Hormuz." Ship tracking data shows that traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has been substantially stalled for two weeks, with no confirmed transits in either direction on Friday.