After the Supreme Court ruling, the Trump administration launched the "B Plan" for tariffs, with multiple Section 301 investigations expected to be launched consecutively.
After the US Supreme Court ruled that some tariff measures were illegal, the Trump administration is stepping up efforts to launch new tariff policies to restore tariff revenue.
After the US Supreme Court ruled certain tariff measures illegal, the Trump administration is stepping up efforts to introduce new tariff policies to restore tariff revenue. The US government announced the first step of its new tariff strategy on Thursday night, with more measures expected to be rolled out in the coming week.
US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer announced that, under Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974, the US will launch an investigation into "excess capacity and production issues in manufacturing industry." The investigation will target several major trading partners, including the European Union, Singapore, Switzerland, Norway, Thailand, South Korea, Vietnam, Mexico, Japan, and India.
It is worth noting that some important trading partners, such as Canada and the UK, were not included in the investigation list. However, Monica Gorman, Managing Director of Crowley Global Advisors, mentioned that this should not be interpreted as these countries being excluded from tariff measures. She predicts that the US government may simultaneously launch multiple or even overlapping Section 301 investigations.
According to trade lawyers, another investigation into forced labor issues may be launched as early as this week. This investigation will not only target countries with forced labor issues, but may also involve countries that import goods containing related production processes.
Analysts point out that the tariff measures resulting from the new investigations are unlikely to completely replicate the overturned tariff structure and may have varying impacts on industries and businesses. This means that importers will need to reassess potential risks and conduct new supply chain analyses.
According to the process, the Section 301 investigation will start a public comment period on March 17th, with a hearing scheduled by the USTR on May 5th, followed by potential tariff remedies. Trade lawyers estimate that the new tariff policy may be implemented around mid-July, nearing the expiration of the 10% temporary Section 122 tariffs put in place by Trump after the Supreme Court's ruling.
Consultancy firms predict that the new round of tariff measures may be more sustained, but businesses still have time to prepare for potential policy changes.
Meanwhile, geopolitical tensions and economic conditions may also affect the progress of tariff policies. The Iran war, in particular, may lead to supply chain disruptions and inflation, potentially limiting the government's ability to further impose tariffs in the short term.
Gorman says, "It all depends on the inflation and price trends in the next two months."
In addition, importers are currently facing another important issue tariff refunds. Many companies have sought refunds for previously paid tariffs through protests or lawsuits. Industry insiders are closely watching whether the US government will challenge the ruling of the US Court of International Trade, which requires US Customs and Border Protection to establish a tariff refund mechanism by April 20th.
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