Saudi Arabia significantly increased production in February to respond to the risks of the situation in the Middle East, while OPEC maintained expectations for global oil demand growth.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) released its monthly report on Wednesday, stating that Saudi Arabia significantly increased its crude oil production in February in response to potential supply disruptions in the Middle East ahead of potential military strikes by the United States and Israel against Iran. Meanwhile, OPEC maintained its forecast for strong global oil demand growth this year. According to the report, Saudi Arabia notified OPEC that it supplied the market with 10.11 million barrels per day of crude oil in February, while the actual production for that month reached 10.88 million barrels per day. In comparison, Saudi Arabia reported a crude oil production of 10.10 million barrels per day in January. Sources had previously indicated that Saudi Arabia's increase in output and exports in February was part of its contingency plan to deal with potential U.S. military actions against Iran. This plan aims to ensure additional supply to global markets in case of disruption in Middle East oil supply. On February 28, the U.S. launched attacks on Iran, leading to disruptions in some oil exports, forced production shutdowns, and a significant increase in international oil prices. Saudi Arabia has long played a role as a "balancer" in the global oil market, increasing production during supply disruptions and cutting output during market oversupply. Sources noted that the increase in production in February echoed a similar emergency arrangement from last year when Saudi Arabia transferred more crude oil to storage to mitigate potential supply risks. The report also revealed that total crude oil production for OPEC+ countries, including OPEC members and allies like Russia, averaged 42.72 million barrels per day in February, an increase of 445,000 barrels per day compared to January, according to secondary source estimates. It is worth noting that the "supply to the market" in the OPEC report typically includes crude oil exports, as well as usage by domestic refineries and power plants, but excludes the portion transferred to storage. Therefore, despite Saudi Arabia's actual production being significantly higher than its target level within the OPEC+ framework, its supply to the market in February remained largely within the quota range. Regarding demand prospects, OPEC maintained its previous assessment that global oil demand is expected to increase by 1.38 million barrels per day in 2025. The organization's demand forecast for 2026 remains higher than other institutions, including the International Energy Agency (IEA). In the report, OPEC noted that the current geopolitical situation requires close monitoring, but it is still too early to determine the specific impact on global economic growth and oil demand prospects.