"Oil price hits triple digits alert sounded! Wall Street warns that US stocks are just three steps away from a 15% major collapse."

Notice that last week, Morgan Stanley said that oil prices need to remain above $100 per barrel to shake its bullish view on US stocks. Evercore ISI pointed out that crude oil prices between $93 and $97 would signal an imminent decline in the stock market. On Monday of this week, oil prices briefly surged and surpassed the aforementioned levels. Although the duration was less than 24 hours, it was enough to cause concern on Wall Street and in Washington. Towards the end of the trading session, US President Trump made a statement. In an interview, he stated that the war between the US and Iran has ended "very conclusively." The stock market, which had dropped by 1.5% at one point, rebounded and oil prices quickly fell back to the range of last Friday's trading, even though the US leader also stated that he was "considering" taking control of the Strait of Hormuz. On Tuesday morning, crude oil prices remained volatile at the same levels, while US stock index futures fell by 0.3%. However, despite the drop in oil prices from near $120 per barrel, the risk of returning to the three-digit level still exists. This is forcing strategists to analyze how long high oil prices will last and how much damage they will cause to the S&P 500 index. "The problem is the complete uncertainty," said Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA. The Iran war is adding energy-related inflation risks to traders' already lengthy worry list, along with concerns about the potential disruption of multiple industries by artificial intelligence and cracks in the private credit market. The sharp rise in oil prices not only threatens US consumers' purchasing power but also affects high-energy-consuming industries such as airlines and cruise operators. Accelerated outflows of investor funds The explosion of oil tankers near Abu Dhabi has raised doubts in the market about speculation that the "Iranian war could end soon." Currently, the flow of oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz remains close to zero. Matt Miskin, co-chief investment strategist at John Hancock Investment Management, stated in an interview that if oil prices remain high, "the Federal Reserve will actually not be able to ease monetary policy as expected, which also means that the consequences of inflation will be harder to mitigate." Meanwhile, Deutsche Bank states that for oil price shocks to cause at least a 15% drop in the S&P 500 index, one of three conditions must be met: crude oil prices must rise by at least 50% and persist for several months; trigger a hawkish response from central banks; or cause more widespread damage to the US economy. As for widespread economic pain, Jim Reid, global head of macro research and thematic strategy at Deutsche Bank, wrote in a recent report to clients that such "price shocks have less impact on the US than in the past," as the US has emerged as a major oil-producing country.