The market does not believe that the situation in the Hormuz Strait can return to normal! Goldman Sachs: If the blockade continues for five weeks, oil prices may rise to $100.

Although the US government has recently publicly committed to deploying naval forces for escort and attempting to provide insurance support for blocked oil tankers through policy measures, Goldman Sachs pointed out in its latest energy research report that the oil market still shows significant lack of confidence in these intervention measures being able to effectively restore the order of the waterways. Goldman Sachs analysts believe that the current key issue lies in the sustainability of commercial shipping rather than just military escort. Samantha Dart, co-director of global commodities research at Goldman Sachs, further explained: "Given the large number of oil tankers, the feasibility of naval escort itself is questionable." She also emphasized that the market is generally concerned about whether escort ships have adequate capabilities to defend against drone attacks. It is understood that US President Donald Trump has proposed multiple plans, including providing insurance coverage and military escort services by the US to facilitate the safe passage of oil and natural gas tankers through the Strait of Hormuz. Since the outbreak of the Middle East war over the weekend, this globally vital energy transportation waterway has essentially been blocked, leading to some oil-producing countries in the Persian Gulf suspending oil production. According to Goldman's market research, although US Navy intervention theoretically provides military deterrence, risk aversion within the shipping industry has not dissipated. Due to the narrowness of the Strait of Hormuz and the unpredictability of geopolitical conflict risks, many shipowners and international insurance operators remain cautious about sending ships into the area after assessing the risks. This psychological defense mechanism has resulted in a near-stagnation of actual commercial trade flows even though the waterway has not been fully physically blocked. Goldman emphasized that without substantive insurance claims settlement and more credible long-term security guarantees, confidence in the recovery of supplies is difficult to rebuild in the short term. Affected by this crisis of confidence, international oil prices are experiencing a period of intense volatility. Goldman has raised its forecast for Brent crude oil prices in the second quarter of 2026 to $76 per barrel, significantly higher than the previous forecast of $66, but still well below the current global benchmark of $85 per barrel for Brent crude oil, with WTI crude oil forecast also raised to $71. Samantha Dart, co-director of global commodities research at Goldman Sachs, explained that this estimate is based on the assumption that oil flow through the Strait of Hormuz will remain at extremely low levels for about five days, followed by a gradual recovery period lasting one month. She also emphasized that if the interruption in the strait lasts for five weeks, Brent crude oil prices could rise to over $100 per barrel. From a deeper macro perspective, Goldman believes that the market's focus is shifting from "whether there is an escort" to "whether the escort is effective." Even with military protection, concerns about the safety of sailors, expensive war risk insurance premiums, and the possibility of secondary strikes on oil production facilities all provide solid support for upward oil price risks. On the other hand, for oil prices to fall back to the $60 benchmark level, it is necessary for US escort and insurance measures to have a immediate effect, allowing commercial oil tankers to pass freely as before.