Preview of US Stock Market | The three major stock index futures all rose, the demand for safe-haven assets cooled, and the U.S. dollar fell slightly. Broadcom announced its financial report after the bell.

Pre-market Market Trends 1. Before the market opened on March 4th (Wednesday), the futures of the three major US stock indices rose. As of writing, Nasdaq futures were up 0.06%, S&P 500 futures were up 0.14%, and Dow futures were up 0.24%. 2. As of writing, the Germany DAX index rose 1.63%, the UK FTSE 100 index rose 0.65%, the France CAC40 index rose 1.03%, and the European Stoxx 50 index rose 1.65%. 3. As of writing, WTI crude oil was up 0.80% at $75.16 per barrel. Brent crude oil was up 1.55% at $82.66 per barrel. Market News Risk aversion has cooled, the US dollar fell from a three-month high. The US dollar fell after hitting a three-month high on Tuesday. The previous rise in the US dollar was mainly driven by inflows of safe-haven funds and the spike in oil prices due to the US-Iran conflict. Jefferies Financial Group Inc. economist Mohit Kumar stated in a report that market sentiment was boosted by Trump's proposal to provide insurance for ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz, while Gulf countries may take countermeasures against Iran, leading the market to hope that the war might end sooner. As of writing, the US Dollar Index (DXY) was down 0.24% to 98.82. At the same time, spot gold was up over 2% at $1944 per ounce, and spot silver was up over 5% at $86.28 per ounce. Is the stock market correction not over yet? Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. CEO warns that the market has not fully priced in the "cost of war." Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. Chairman and CEO David Solomon stated that he was surprised by the "mild" market reaction to the escalation of geopolitical conflict in the Middle East. He added that it would take weeks to fully understand the standoff between the US and Iran, so the market needed more than a week to digest all the negative impacts. Solomon stated: "I have seen the recent market reaction, and I am actually surprised. The market's response has been relatively mild." He cited the latest closing data that the S&P 500 index fell by less than 1% on Monday and Tuesday. Meanwhile, due to concerns that a war-induced spike in oil prices would lead to a resurgence of global inflation and monetary tightening, traders are significantly lowering their expectations for a Fed rate cut, which is a core logic behind the massive selling in US stocks on Tuesday. Don't count on Trump to save the market! Wall Street warns in unison: he cannot control this situation. Wall Street strategists are warning not to rely on the so-called "Trump put" in the face of the escalating US-Iran situation. Military strikes by the US and Israel against Iran have plunged the Middle East into turmoil and may bring new inflationary shocks to the US economy due to rising oil prices. Currently, there is no consensus on when or how this conflict will end, increasing the risk of the conflict prolonging and bringing unforeseeable consequences to the White House. Baird investment strategist Ross Mayfield believes that regardless of how quickly the conflict ends, the risk of widespread damage to oil infrastructure in the Middle East could prolong the impact of the conflict on the market. BCA Research Chief Political and US Policy Strategist Matt Gertken stated that only when there is a "market-induced recession" risk, namely a stock market decline of about 10% to 15%, will the White House truly feel the pressure. French Foreign Trade Bank US interest rate director John Briggs believes that only when bond yields rise to a level that "causes chaos and spreads to credit and stock markets" may prompt Trump to try to disengage from the conflict. Is it a good time to buy the dip in US stocks? Deutsche Bank pours cold water: be careful not to get caught halfway! As the conflict between the US and Iran escalates, investors are wondering if the "buy the dip" strategy will still work this time when the war breaks out. Deutsche Bank believes that the key issue this week is whether oil and gas prices will soar to a level that impedes economic growth, thus disrupting recovery trades. Strategist Henry Allen stated: "We previously wrote that geopolitical events usually do not cause sustained market reactions. However, an exception is when geopolitical events have macro channels that affect the market. The situation in Iran is a typical example." The strategist stated that at least one of the following three conditions must be met: oil prices rise by at least 50% to 100% and last for several months; rising oil prices push the already cooling economy into recession or serious slowdown; hawkish policy adjustments by central banks in response to rising oil prices may cause the S&P 500 index to plunge by more than 15%. AI panic is at a peak! When "AI disrupts everything" hits software stocks hard, Wall Street no longer believes in the "buyback faith." Amid several months of persistent bearish market conditions, American Software, Inc. Class A significantly increased the size of its stock buyback program and accelerated the pace of buybacks. Compared to the same period last year, the actual stock buyback size announced by the industry almost doubled, but some institutional investors and Wall Street strategists continue to question the short-term resilience of buyback-driven rebounds, believing that the momentum of buybacks is not enough to prevent a sharp market sell-off. Once the period of minor and short-term rebounds brought about by buybacks is over, it may continue to move towards a new bear market cycle under the pessimistic narrative of "AI disrupting everything". What investors urgently need is strong revenue growth under the unprecedented AI wave for software companies, showing that cutting-edge AI technology is a revenue-generating tool rather than a "profit terminator". Middle East conflict burns economic "confidence"! Fed's Kashkari urgently calls: the outlook for monetary policy has become completely blurred. Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari stated that the escalation of the Middle East conflict has increased the uncertainty about the US economic outlook, making it harder to predict the direction of Fed monetary policy and interest rates. As a member with voting rights on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) interest rate decision this year, Kashkari previously expected inflation pressures to continue to ease by 2026, creating conditions for a Fed rate cut. Now speaking about monetary policy, he said: "We need to watch this new shock - possibly a new variable that could impact the global economy - how long it will last, and how deeply it will affect." "I think the Fed and the market are both thinking about the same question now: How long will this conflict last? How bad will it get?" He pointed out that the impact of such geopolitical conflicts on inflation is hard to predict, so he needs to wait for further data to make a judgment. Tom Lee sounds the horn for a counterattack: the most severe sell-off will end this week, March will be the "rebound month" for tech stocks and cryptocurrencies. Tom Lee, known as the "Wall Street prophet", stated that although the global market has been under pressure recently due to geopolitical tensions and previous technical corrections, cryptocurrencies, the software sector, and the tech giants collectively known as the "MAG-7" will all experience a recovery this month - either hitting rock bottom or close to it. Lee stated in an interview: "I believe the most severe sell-off phase will end this week. I expect the stock market to rise in March." Stock-Specific News The "Tesla, Inc. fan" stockholder Leo KoGuan bought 1 million shares of NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA.US), supporting the AI market as not a bubble! Leo KoGuan, who became one of Tesla, Inc.'s largest individual shareholders a few years ago, announced that he purchased 1 million shares of NVIDIA Corporation stock on Tuesday. He posted on social media: "I believe that artificial intelligence is not a bubble, it is just the beginning. I plan to buy more NVIDIA Corporation stock soon to calm the nervous market." Apple Inc. (AAPL.US) M5 chip performance surge drives MacBook price hikes, local AI becomes a new selling point for hardware. Apple Inc. has released new MacBook Pro and MacBook Air models featuring its latest M5 chip and updated Studio Display product line. This is Apple Inc.'s largest Mac product update in over a year. This provides Apple Inc. with a new opportunity to revitalize demand for Mac, while also demonstrating more broadly that more AI work will move to local devices, not just the cloud. These new product releases come at a critical time for Apple Inc.'s Mac business. In the holiday quarter of last year, its Mac sales dropped by nearly 7% to $8.39 billion, significantly below analysts' expectations of nearly $9 billion. These new models are designed to attract users to upgrade, especially those still using old Intel Corporation chip systems or early M-series devices. However, the prices of the new products have increased. Due to memory suppliers favoring the more lucrative AI data center market over consumer-level hardware, leading to a tight memory supply, which has pushed up costs. Intel Corporation (INTC.US) personnel earthquake: 17-year veteran Yerry retires, chip industry stalwart Balart to succeed as chairman of the board. Intel Corporation announced that longtime board chairman Frank Yerry plans to retire, the latest personnel change at the once-dominant US chip maker as CEO Pat Gelsinger seeks to reshape the company. Current Intel Corporation board member and veteran chip industry executive Craig Balart will take over as chairman after the company's annual shareholders' meeting in May. Seaport Securities analyst Jay Goldberg stated: "I think his departure should have happened earlier. During Yerry's tenure on the board, Intel Corporation made many bad decisions." In addition, three former Intel Corporation executives stated that replacing Yerry, who served as an investor and corporate advisor, with an experienced semiconductor industry executive is a popular move. Not disrupted by AI, but mastering AI! Cybersecurity giant CrowdStrike (CRWD.US) outperforms expectations across the board. Fourth-quarter 2026 performance showed that CrowdStrike's total revenue for the quarter grew by 23% year-over-year to $1.305 billion, slightly higher than the market's expectations of $1.3 billion. Subscription-based revenue reached approximately $1.242 billion, a 23% increase year-over-year. Adjusted earnings per share were $1.12, also beating the market's expectation of $1.10. As of January 31, 2026, the company's annual recurring revenue (ARR) grew by a significant 24% year-over-year to reach $5.25 billion, with the fourth quarter adding a net ARR of $330.7 million - a 47% increase year-over-year setting a record high, well above the market's expectation of about $300 million. In addition, the company's guidance for the first quarter and full year of fiscal year 2027 is better than market expectations. This latest performance and guidance significantly weaken the extreme narrative of "AI rapidly disrupting cybersecurity software". "Cost-effectiveness" becomes the main consumer trend! Discount retail giant Ross Stores, Inc. (ROST.US) achieves record Q4 sales, annual performance guidance exceeds expectations. The earnings report shows that same-store sales in the fourth quarter grew by 9%, far exceeding analysts' expectations of 4.03%; earnings per share reached $2, higher than the market's expectation of $1.90; and sales reached a historical high of $6.64 billion, surpassing the market's expectation of $6.4 billion. Looking ahead, the company expects the annual same-store sales growth rate for the new fiscal year to be between 3% to 4%, with the forecast midpoint higher than analysts' average expectation of 3.05%. This indicates that despite macroeconomic uncertainties looming over the market, consumer demand for discounted apparel and accessories is expected to remain strong. Meanwhile, this discount retailer also announced a new stock repurchase plan of up to $2.55 billion for fiscal years 2026 and 2027. As of writing, Ross Stores, Inc. was up over 7% in pre-market trading on Wednesday. Important Economic Data and Event Preview 11:00 PM Beijing time - US ISM Services PMI for February 3:00 AM Beijing time the next day - Fed releases Beige Book on economic conditions 5:00 AM Beijing time the next day - US Senate holds the first vote on the "Authorization for the Use of Military Force against Iran" resolution Earnings Preview Thursday morning: Broadcom Inc. (AVGO.US) Thursday pre-market: Kroger Co. (KR.US), Global Ship Lease, Inc. Class A (GSL.US), JD.com, Inc. Sponsored ADR Class A (JD.US), Bilibili, Inc. Sponsored ADR Class Z (BILI.US), HUTCHMED (HCM.US), Gaotu Techedu, Inc. Sponsored ADR Class A (GOTU.US), Tuniu Corp. Sponsored ADR Class A (TOUR.US)