Minmetals Securities: The continuous evolution of the US critical mineral strategy is worth reevaluating the value of key varieties.

Minmetals Securities releases research report stating that the strategic development of key mineral resources in the United States to date includes clear strategic orientation, synergy between government and enterprises, coverage of the entire industry chain, significant alliance features, and flexible policy tools. Industrial metal prices have mostly risen, and the expectation of interest rate cuts will continue to boost industrial metal prices, with a focus on copper, tin, and aluminum. In other metal areas, tungsten prices have continuously hit new highs, focusing on the revaluation of China's advantageous resources, such as tungsten, antimony, and rare earth elements. Key viewpoints of Minmetals Securities: The strategic development of key mineral resources in the United States has undergone four stages of evolution, expanding its goals to control the entire industry chain. The strategic development of key mineral resources in the United States has gone through the risk identification stage from 2008 to 2017, the "America First" localization launch stage from 2017 to 2021, the deepening stage of "allied coordination" from 2021 to 2025, and from 2025 onwards, it has entered a period of aggressive expansion to control the entire industry chain, with the strategic intensity continuously increasing. In summary, the characteristics of the strategic development of key mineral resources in the United States so far include clear strategic orientation, synergy between government and enterprises, coverage of the entire industry chain, significant alliance features, and flexible policy tools. The Key Mineral Reserves Project in the United States (Project Vault) is a systematic design that combines national policies, finance, and market means, not just as a supply buffer, but as a key element in reshaping its supply system. Through the integration of the government, traders, mining companies, and manufacturing enterprises within the Vault project, supported by $1.67 billion in private capital and $10 billion in Export-Import Bank loans, providing policy support such as tariff exemptions and price floor guarantees, it not only stabilizes prices but also connects the upstream and downstream supply and demand, sending a signal for mineral investment. The United States is building a framework for coordinated action through the Vault project to guide mineral project investments and leverage national capital to attract private capital. The United States has planned to invest over $30 billion in funding for mining and smelting projects, promoting multi-department coordination to form a joint funding force involving the Department of Defense (DoD), the Department of Energy (DOE), the Export-Import Bank (EXIM), the Development Finance Corporation (DFC), and other agencies. The funding model is primarily based on "government guidance + private capital follow-up," with the government reducing project risks through loans, grants, equity investments, etc., leveraging private capital to participate several times the government's expenditure, creating a scalable investment effect. The metal minerals involved in the funded projects highly overlap with China's advantageous resources, spanning the entire lifecycle of "exploration-mining-processing-recovery," with a focus on strengthening local processing and manufacturing capabilities. According to disclosed information on funded projects, the key focus is on strategic minor metals such as rare earths, lithium, graphite, and tungsten-titanium-antimony-niobium. Geographically, a layout of "domestic primary, allied complementary" is formed, while also focusing on funding mineral projects in allied countries such as Australia, Brazil, Canada, etc. If the US government implements its price floor commitments and mineral assistance plans, there is hope for long-term viable returns on new mining and smelting projects, overcoming uncertainties brought about by high capital expenditure, long cycles, price fluctuations, etc. Risk warnings: 1. Uncertainty in mineral policy; 2. Global trade policy changes beyond expectations, causing regional logic changes in goods circulation; 3. Industrial demand lower than expected.