HK Stock Market Move | CHINAHONGQIAO(01378) rises over 8% in the afternoon, US-Iran conflict will drive up aluminum prices.

CHINAHONGQIAO (01378) rose over 8% in the afternoon, with an increase of 8.01% at the time of drafting, reaching 38.3 Hong Kong dollars, with a turnover of 14.44 billion Hong Kong dollars. On the news front, the US-Iran conflict continues to escalate. According to China Securities Co., Ltd., the six countries in the Middle East will face a dual threat of raw material input and finished product output for about 7 million tons of primary aluminum, especially Iran's nearly 800,000 tons of primary aluminum. The bank believes that the potential impact of the US-Iran conflict on aluminum may be manifested as Iran reducing production, threatening the stable production of the Middle East Six countries, mainly due to the blockade of maritime transport routes, preventing alumina from entering and primary aluminum from leaving, which will inevitably lead to a global shortage of aluminum supply. The latest global primary aluminum inventory is 1.62 million tons, with weak resistance to supply shocks. The US-Iran conflict will drive aluminum prices higher. GF SEC's research report points out that against the background of improving demand for primary aluminum, supply constraints will become more prominent, and the upward elasticity of aluminum prices should not be ignored. As of the end of March 2025, CHINAHONGQIAO has a primary aluminum production capacity of 6.459 million tons, with stable production and sales, cost reduction, and it is expected that the rise in aluminum prices by 2026 will bring core profit elasticity to the company. Guotai Haitong also expects the company's future dividend payment capability to strengthen, and the bank believes that the company is still a highly attractive high dividend stock in the Hong Kong stock market.