Shenwan Hongyuan Group: Single ticket prices entering repair channel, optimistic about express volume and price performance.

Shenwan Hongyuan Group released a research report stating that the process of AI substitution is accelerating, and the express delivery industry serves as an important "reservoir" for flexible employment. The policy of protecting the rights of end delivery workers is expected to drive the stabilization and recovery of end delivery fees, and single ticket prices are entering a repair channel. The elasticity of enterprise profits is gradually being released, and it is optimistic about the concentration of profits and market share of top companies in the industry. It recommends YTO Express Group (600233.SH), ZTO EXPRESS-W (02057), STO Express Co., Ltd. (002468.SZ), J&T EXPRESS-W (01519), and S.F. Holding (002352.SZ). Key points from Shenwan Hongyuan Group are as follows: Industry demand shows strong resilience, express delivery companies accelerate resumption of work According to data from the Ministry of Transport, from December 29, 2025 to February 22, 2026, the total volume of express deliveries reached 28.642 billion items, a year-on-year increase of 5.4%, and the total volume of express deliveries reached 29.369 billion items, a year-on-year increase of 6.8%. The overall volume of items in January-February continues to show a steady growth trend. Due to the strong resilience of the express delivery industry demand, express delivery companies are accelerating the resumption of work. The official WeChat account of "Tongdatu" announced the resumption of work during the fourth to sixth day of the Lunar New Year, canceling the Spring Festival additional fees, and upgrading services. It is suggested to pay attention to the industry growth rate after the Spring Festival, as well as changes in end prices in grain-producing areas. Policy of protecting end delivery worker rights reshapes cost and price structures The National Postal Industry Work Conference in 2026 clearly emphasizes "penetrative" supervision, rectification of "complaints results in punishment," and promotes the implementation of new social security policies, effectively protecting the rights of express delivery workers. Social security and standardized employment lock in the cost bottom line. Some express delivery companies, especially franchise outlets, have in the past evaded labor costs by underpaying or failing to pay social security contributions and extensively using labor outsourcing. The implementation of the new social security regulations in 2026 will benefit in turning past hidden costs that were free from regulation into mandatory unified costs for all players. At the same time, the minimum delivery fee guideline forms a rigid leverage point for price transmission. In the current situation where various transit transportation costs are converging and optimization speed is slowing down, delivery fees account for a higher proportion (for example, YTO Express Group, with a single ticket collection and delivery service cost of 1.35 yuan in 24, accounts for 65%), which to some extent determines the price of express delivery. Investment analysis opinion The process of AI substitution is accelerating, and the express delivery industry serves as an important "reservoir" for flexible employment. The policy of protecting the rights of end delivery workers is expected to drive the stabilization and recovery of end delivery fees, and single ticket prices are entering a repair channel. Enterprise profit elasticity is gradually released, and it is optimistic about the concentration of profits and market share of top companies in the industry. It recommends YTO Express Group and ZTO EXPRESS-W, which have continuously improved competitiveness, and pays attention to the performance elasticity of STO Express Co., Ltd. Jitu Express's business volume in Southeast Asia and new markets is accelerating growth, and it is optimistic about the company's continued leading advantage and industry position. S.F. Holding's management structure and business line adjustments are sufficient, and attention should be paid to bottom allocation opportunities. Risk warning: Industry price competition exceeds expectations; declining demand for express delivery; significant changes in industry landscape; and rising labor costs.