Guosen: It is suggested to pay attention to the "Service Consumption Year" in 2026 and be optimistic about the leading companies in the service consumption sector, driven by supportive policy expectations and a sound economic foundation.

Guosen released a research report stating that since January 2026, under the dual catalysis of service consumption policy expectations and the Spring Festival peak season, the leading companies in the food and beverage industry have shown strong performance. Subcategories such as tea drinks and fast food maintain resilient growth, and the industry's prosperity continues to improve. The hotel catering industry is maintained with a "better than market" rating. It is recommended to pay attention to 2026 as the year of service consumption, and be optimistic about the leading companies in the service consumption sector resonating with policy expectations and fundamentals. The main points of Guosen are as follows: Market review: Service consumption policy expectations + Spring Festival consumer peak, leading companies in the food and beverage industry continue to perform well In January 2026, the top 5 stocks in chain hotel catering, delivery platforms in A/H/US stocks with the highest increase were JIUMAOJIU, GUOQUAN, BABA-W, SSAW Hotels & Resorts Group, GUMING. Among them, JIUMAOJIU led the way, with the latest announcement showing that the core brand Tai Er 25Q4's same-store decline continued to narrow to -3%, while the same-store decline of Sng firepot & JIUMAOJIU brand remained relatively stable; GUOQUAN released performance forecast maintaining strong growth, expecting the core operating profit in 2025 to be around 4.5-4.7 billion yuan, with an increase of 44.8-51.2%; BABA-W is expected to benefit from the integration of the Qianwen model ecosystem and progress in the chip business; followed by SSAW Hotels & Resorts Group, GUMING also showed good increase. From February 2026 to present, the Spring Festival peak season catalyzed the same-store revenue/RevPAR recovery momentum of leading companies such as YUM CHINA, HWORLD-S, Y Du, HAIDILAO, GUMING, showing strong performance. Chain hotel + catering January & Spring Festival holiday tracking Sector dynamics: In December 2025, the monthly catering revenue increased by 2.2%, with the revenue of designated catering units exceeding the limit amounting to 146.32 billion yuan, down 1.1% year-on-year, indicating weak growth for designated units. In December 2025, driving policies to expand domestic demand led to a 0.8% year-on-year increase in CPI, with service CPI also increased by 0.6%, and core CPI excluding food and energy prices rising by 1.2%, maintaining a resilient growth trend. In January 2026, the year-on-year increase in CPI and core CPI data has slightly fallen, due to the impact of the Spring Festival being in a different month. Tea drink tracking: In January 2026 & Spring Festival, excluding the impact of the Spring Festival being in a different month (consolidating January-February operating data), leading companies in tea drinks have maintained resilient growth. 1) Tea drink track: In January, with the support of platform subsidies, the expansion of the leading coffee brand, and continuous promotion of new products, the monthly GMV of the tea drink leading companies is expected to have a single-digit year-on-year increase, with a slight increase in growth compared to the previous month under the boost of the Spring Festival peak season; 2) Hot pot track: In January, due to the impact of the Spring Festival being in a different month, HAIDILAO is expected to increase by 5% during the Spring Festival period, with an acceleration in growth compared to the previous month; Sng hot pot is expected to continue to decline year-on-year by double digits, with adjustments still ongoing; 3) Popular catering: Same-store performance of leading companies varies, with most brands experiencing a year-on-year decrease in same-store revenue in January, an increase in the Spring Festival period is expected, but some brands are still disrupted by price factors; 4) Fast food: KFC, Pizza Hut maintains resilient growth, expected to increase by single digits; XIAO NOODLES is expected to maintain positive growth in same-store revenue in January-February. Hotel tracking: Data from Hotel Home shows that during the Spring Festival week of 2026 (2026-02-16 to 2026-02-22) compared to the same week last year, the hotel industry's REVPAR increased by 30.7%, with OCC +8.1%, ADR +13.5%, as demand strongly grew and top groups gradually formed a consensus of "anti-indentation price stabilization". It is expected that leading prices during the holiday period will stand out, leading the market momentum forward due to reverse migration for the Lunar New Year. Core brand dynamics: Data from the official WeChat platform of XIAOCAIYUAN shows that by the end of 2025, the number of stores had exceeded 800, with 15/5 new stores opened in January and February 2026 respectively; according to information on the official website of Xing Yun Ka, as of November 18, 2025, Xing Yun Ka has reached 10,000 stores nationwide, successfully becoming a brand with ten thousand stores; Qianwen's AI consumer promotion campaign during the Spring Festival of 2026, with the core being a 25-yuan no-threshold card for free consumption, focusing on "drinking milk tea for 1 cent"; Jinjiang closed-end commercial real estate securities investment fund has been accepted by the stock exchange, marking the substantial expansion of the public REITs market from "infrastructure" to "commercial real estate". Investment recommendations: Taking into account market styles, company fundamentals, and valuations, the recommended portfolio includes: HAIDILAO, HWORLD-S, GUMING, GUOQUAN, YUM CHINA, Y Du, XIAO NOODLES, BTG Hotels; Medium-term recommendations include MIXUE GROUP, XIAOCAIYUAN, DPC DASH, GREEN TEA GROUP, Shanghai Jin Jiang International Hotels, MEITUAN-W, Tongqinglou Catering Corporation, SSAW Hotels & Resorts Group, Guangzhou Restaurant Group, CHABAIDAO, AUNTEA JENNY, JIUMAOJIU, etc. Risk reminders: Systemic risks such as macroeconomics, epidemics, food safety risks, lower-than-expected same-store growth & store expansion, shareholder sell-off risks, etc.