Sealand: Differentiation in express delivery volume and price at the head, performance valuation is expected to double recovery

Sealand released a research report stating that the total number of express deliveries received in the first eight weeks before 2026 was 32.734 billion, an increase of +5.40% year-on-year. The express delivery business volume is steadily growing, maintaining a "recommended" rating for the express logistics sector. The competition in the express delivery industry accelerated differentiation in 2025, as the industry continues to promote high-quality development, competition in the industry is shifting from quantity to quality. It is expected that the market share of leading companies will continue to increase, and performance valuation is expected to double recovery. Sealand's main points are as follows: Industry end: The total number of express deliveries received in the first eight weeks before 2026 was 32.734 billion, up by +5.40% year-on-year. Due to the Spring Festival holiday off-season factors (Spring Festival dates: January 29, 2025, and February 17, 2026), the postal express delivery volume fluctuated year-on-year. In January 2026 (W1-W5), the cumulative postal express delivery volume was 20.867 billion, an increase of +27.85% year-on-year. In the first three weeks of February 2026 (W6-W8), the cumulative postal express delivery volume was 7.775 billion, a decrease of -28.35% year-on-year. The total number of express deliveries received in the first eight weeks before 2026 was 32.734 billion, an increase of +5.40% year-on-year. Listed companies end: YTO Express Group leads in January business volume growth, with SF Express optimizing business volume continuously. In terms of business volume: In January, the express business volumes were YTO Express Group 2.943 billion, STO Express Co., Ltd. 2.54 billion, YUNDA Holding Group 2.231 billion, and S.F. Holding 1.386 billion. In terms of business volume growth rate, YTO's was 29.75%> Shentong's 25.57%> Yunda's 10.83%. In terms of unit price: SF Express had an average unit price of 14.72 yuan in January (up by +0.91 yuan), YTO Express Group had 2.25 yuan (down by -0.10 yuan year-on-year, flat monthly), STO Express Co., Ltd. had 2.35 yuan (up by +0.29 yuan year-on-year, up by +0.02 yuan monthly), YUNDA Holding Group had 2.15 yuan (up by +0.13 yuan year-on-year, flat monthly). Among them, SF Holding's average unit price in January increased by 0.91 yuan, transitioning from scale-driven to value-driven, which is beneficial for the company's profit margin recovery; YTO Express Group's high volume growth is mainly due to the Spring Festival off-season and adjustments in business structure, with an average unit price in January showing a year-on-year decrease of 0.10 yuan; STO Express Co., Ltd.'s high volume growth is mainly due to the Spring Festival off-season and the consolidation of Dan Niao Logistics in November 2025; YUNDA Holding Group's average unit price increased by 0.13 yuan in January, expected to be driven by business structure adjustments. Investment recommendations: 1) Regarding SF Holding, it is recommended to invest in S.F. Holding as a leading comprehensive express logistics company. The company is poised to enter a new development stage after reaching an inflection point in operations and cash flow. In the short term, as the company "activates operations" and continues to optimize market strategies, coupled with network integration, profit margins are expected to steadily recover. In the medium to long term, the international business is expected to open up new growth curves. It is recommended to consider investing in SF INTRA-CITY as the largest third-party instant delivery platform in the country, benefitting from the rapid growth of the instant retail industry. The local delivery business is expected to enter a strategic opportunity period, combined with the help of group resources and technological empowerment, viewing the company's performance growth positively. 2) Regarding the franchise system, since August 2025, various regions have gradually adjusted prices under the call to "counter internal competition" in the express delivery industry. The rebound in prices has led to the continuous recovery of financial performance in Q3 of 2025. Considering the impact of the time difference in price increases across regions in Q3 of 2025, it is expected that the profit elasticity of express delivery companies will be more pronounced in Q4 of 2025. In terms of market share, the competition in the express delivery industry accelerated differentiation in 2025 with the industry moving towards high-quality development. The competition has shifted from quantity to quality, with a positive outlook on the continuous increase of market share for leading companies and the double recovery of performance valuation. It is recommended to focus on ZTO Express, YTO Express Group. Additionally, it is suggested to pay attention to STO Express Co., Ltd. and YUNDA Holding Group. Risk warning: Physical goods online shopping demand is lower than expected; E-commerce express delivery price competition worsens; risk of decreased stability of end franchisees; risk of rising oil prices; risk of lower-than-expected growth in the instant retail industry, etc.