Cinda: The long Spring Festival holiday stimulates travel, with scenic spots and inbound tourism performing well.
Service consumption should focus on the travel-related industry chain, including scenic spots and hotels. Product consumption should focus on duty-free and retail department stores.
Cinda published a research report stating that the super long Chinese New Year holiday stimulated the demand for outbound travel, with a total domestic travel expenditure of 803.483 billion yuan, averaging 89.3 billion yuan per day, a year-on-year increase of 5.5%, and a recovery to 122% of the level during the same period in 2019. The growth momentum of service consumption is better than that of goods consumption, and compared to developed countries, there is still a large room for improvement in the proportion of service consumption in China. The report suggests focusing on industries related to travel for service consumption, including scenic spots and hotels, while focusing on duty-free and retail department stores for goods consumption.
Cinda's main points are as follows:
The super long Chinese New Year holiday stimulated the demand for outbound travel, with per capita consumption still under pressure.
During the 26-day Chinese New Year holiday with 9 days off, there were 596 million domestic trips in the country, averaging 66 million trips per day, a year-on-year increase of 5.7%, and a recovery to 112% of the level during the same period in 2019. The total expenditure on domestic travel was 803.483 billion yuan, averaging 89.3 billion yuan per day, a year-on-year increase of 5.5%, and a recovery to 122% of the level during the same period in 2019. The per capita consumption was 1348 yuan, averaging 150 yuan per day, a decrease of 11.3% year-on-year, and a recovery to 84.7% of the level during the same period in 2019.
Scenic spots: High popularity of visitor flow
During the 26-day Chinese New Year holiday, scenic spots saw a "red envelope" period, with many scenic spots reaching their maximum capacity for several days. In terms of year-on-year growth compared to the 2019 period, Mount Emei/Three Gorges Dam performed well; in terms of growth compared to 2019, Mount Emei/Changbai Mountain Tourism/Three Gorges Dam/Zhangjiajie Wulingyuan Scenic Area performed strongly. Projects under Wuhan Sante Cableway Group received 18.2% more visitors in the first 8 days, and destinations under Zhejiang Sun River Culture Tourism received 31.3% more visitors.
Duty-free: Double-digit growth in duty-free sales on Hainan's offshore islands, with Sanya outperforming Haikou
With the combined catalysts of the closure of Hainan, the peak tourism season, and the super long Chinese New Year holiday, the daily duty-free sales on the offshore islands have returned to near the highest level in 24 years. According to Haikou Customs, the duty-free shopping amount during the 26-day Chinese New Year holiday was 2.72 billion yuan, averaging 303 million yuan per day, a 16.5% year-on-year increase. According to the Sanya Municipal Bureau of Commerce, duty-free sales in Sanya were 1.96 billion yuan, averaging 218 million yuan per day, a 21% year-on-year increase.
Entertainment: Daily performances remain flat to slight increase
During the 26-day Chinese New Year holiday, Songcheng Performance Development staged a total of 580 performances of "Love Stories of the Ages" with 11 stages, an increase of 30 performances despite having one less stage compared to the 25-day Chinese New Year holiday. "Chang Hen Ge" played four full shows every day, with a total of 32 shows during the Chinese New Year holiday, an increase of 4 shows compared to the 25-day holiday.
Outbound travel: Super long holiday combined with "connecting holidays" sparked outbound travel demand
According to the National Immigration Administration, during the 26-day Chinese New Year holiday, there were 17.796 million entries and exits for Chinese and foreign personnel, averaging 1.977 million entries and exits per day, a 10.1% year-on-year increase. Of these, mainland residents made 9.514 million entries and exits, a 10.2% year-on-year increase. Mainland tourists visiting Hong Kong/Macau increased by 11.7%/7.2% respectively.
Inbound travel: Visa-free policy benefits inbound travel
According to the National Immigration Administration, during the 26-day Chinese New Year holiday, there were 1.313 million entries and exits for foreigners, an average of 21.8% year-on-year increase. Among the foreigners entering the country, 460,000 entered under the visa-free policy, a 28.5% year-on-year increase.
Risk alerts: Impact of macroeconomic changes on travel consumption willingness and payment capacity; effect of severe weather on travel; risks of new development projects falling short of expectations; intensification of industry competition and risks of channel diversion.
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