China Gains Leverage Ahead of Summit After U.S. Supreme Court Curbs Trump Tariffs

China may enter upcoming high-level talks with the United States in a stronger negotiating position after the U.S. Supreme Court ruled that President Donald Trump improperly invoked the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) to implement broad tariffs.

The court’s decision invalidated key tariff measures that had been central to Trump’s economic strategy. Analysts say the ruling limits the president’s flexibility to deploy tariffs as a bargaining tool just weeks before his scheduled trip to Beijing from March 31 to April 2. Chinese President Xi Jinping is also expected to visit Washington later this year.

Trade experts argue that the decision could reshape negotiations over extending last year’s trade truce and complicate efforts by Washington to push Beijing to increase purchases of U.S. soybeans, aircraft and energy products. By curbing Trump’s unilateral tariff authority, the ruling reduces immediate pressure on China to make additional trade concessions.

Although the administration responded by introducing a 10% global tariff under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974 — later raised to 15% — the legal foundation differs from the previous emergency-based measures. Analysts estimate that the ruling results in a net reduction of roughly 5% in U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods. Trade data from Global Trade Alert suggests China’s tariff burden could fall by over seven percentage points under the revised framework.

Beijing is expected to use the shift to push for broader policy changes. Analysts say China may press for easing U.S. technology export controls, removing certain Chinese firms from sanctions lists, and reducing arms sales to Taiwan. During a recent phone call, Xi reportedly emphasized that Taiwan remains the most sensitive issue in bilateral relations.

However, tariffs are only one dimension of the relationship. Experts note that Trump retains authority over non-tariff tools, including export controls on advanced semiconductors and sanctions targeting Chinese technology companies. These measures could remain central to Washington’s negotiating strategy.

Meanwhile, uncertainty persists over how the new tariff regime will be implemented. While Trump announced higher duties via social media, official documentation has referenced varying rates. The administration has also indicated that additional legally permissible tariffs could follow in the coming months.

China’s commerce ministry said it is assessing the impact of the ruling and urged the U.S. to remove unilateral tariffs entirely, framing cooperation as mutually beneficial. Still, Beijing faces ongoing scrutiny under a Section 301 investigation examining compliance with commitments made under the Phase One trade agreement during Trump’s first term.

Analysts expect the April summit to produce limited concrete outcomes, possibly extending the current trade ceasefire and reaffirming commercial commitments. Progress on more complex issues — such as export control guidelines, technology access or structural reforms — appears less likely.

With tariffs partially rolled back and legal constraints tightening around executive trade authority, the upcoming meeting between Trump and Xi may focus as much on political signaling as on economic recalibration.