JP Morgan predicts that the total gambling revenue in Macau in February will increase by up to 5% year-on-year, with GALAXY ENT (00027) being their top choice.
Looking ahead to the Lunar New Year period and February performance, the bank predicts that gambling revenue will continue to fluctuate in the coming weeks. The third and fourth Sundays of the month may see gambling revenue ranging between 8.5 billion to 10 billion Macau Patacas and 7.5 billion to 8 billion Macau Patacas, respectively.
JPMorgan Chase released a research report stating that according to industry data, Macau's total gaming revenue in the first fifteen days of February reached 8.8 billion Macau patacas. In other words, the average daily gaming revenue for the month is about 587 million Macau patacas. However, in the past week, the average daily gaming revenue fell to 543 million Macau patacas, compared to 625 million Macau patacas in the first week of February and 730 million Macau patacas in January.
JPMorgan believes that the slowdown in gaming revenue is related to seasonal factors before the Lunar New Year and lower win rates in VIP rooms. They emphasize that the performance of gaming revenue before the Chinese New Year cannot reflect real demand, so excessive interpretation should be avoided. Looking forward to the Lunar New Year period and the performance in February, the bank predicts that gaming revenue in the coming weeks will still fluctuate. The average daily gaming revenue in the third and fourth weeks may range from 850 million to 1 billion Macau patacas and 750 million to 800 million Macau patacas respectively. Currently, it is forecasted that gaming total revenue in February will increase by 2% to 5% year-on-year, reaching 20.1 billion to 20.7 billion Macau patacas, with a daily average level of 720 million to 740 million Macau patacas. It is expected that the total revenue for the first two months will increase by 13% to 14% year-on-year.
In terms of stock selection, the bank suggests that investors focus on individual stocks rather than waiting for a revaluation of the industry's overall valuation. They list GALAXY ENT (00027) as their top pick, with a "hold" rating, followed by MGM CHINA (02282), Sands China (01928), WYNN MACAU (01128), Melco Resorts & Entertainment Ltd. Sponsored ADR (MLCO.US), Melco International Development (00200), and SJM HOLDINGS (00880).
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