The United States ended the strong commercial investment in 2025 with core durable goods orders in December growing 0.6% higher than expected.

Noticed that, the increase in commercial equipment orders in December in the United States exceeded expectations, indicating that with the gradual reduction of trade policy uncertainty, capital investment at the end of last year performed strongly. Data released by the US Department of Commerce on Wednesday showed that the value of core capital goods orders in December (excluding commercial aircraft and military hardware, a measure of equipment investment) increased by 0.6% year-on-year; the previous month's increase, revised to 0.8%, was twice the previous estimate. Economists surveyed had a median forecast of 0.3% growth in December. Orders for all durable goods (goods intended to last at least three years) fell by 1.4%, primarily due to a decline in aircraft orders. Boeing reported that it received more aircraft orders in December than the previous month, but this data does not always correspond entirely to the monthly data of the aircraft manufacturer. Meanwhile, non-defense capital goods shipments, including aircraft, increased by 1.8%, a figure that is directly included in the equipment investment portion of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) report. Unlike orders that may be canceled, the government uses shipment data as an input to GDP. Economists expect that with businesses taking advantage of the tax provisions in last year's "Beautiful Big Tax Cut" act, commercial investment will rebound this year. Investments related to artificial intelligence are also expected to remain strong. The durable goods report shows that the growth in order volumes is fairly broad, including communication equipment, computers, metals, electrical equipment, and machinery. The increase in automobile orders in December was the highest since June of last year. The report also shows that core capital goods shipments increased by 0.9% in December, which is a business investment indicator that excludes aircraft and military hardware and has low volatility. In the last three months of last year, core capital goods shipments increased at an annual rate of 8.2%. Economists tend to refer to core equipment shipment and order data, as they can more clearly reflect potential trends in business investment and their impact on the economy.