Goldman Sachs: Wynn Macau (01128) quarterly performance slightly below expectations, maintains "Neutral" rating.

Goldman Sachs released a research report stating that the fourth quarter performance of WYNN MACAU (01128) in 2025 was slightly below expectations, due to rising costs and unfavorable changes in the composition of gaming revenue. The property's EBITDA was $271 million, at the lower end of market consensus expectations. Goldman Sachs maintained a "neutral" rating on WYNN MACAU with a target price of HK$7. In theory, if the adjusted VIP win rate returns to the level of 3.1% to 3.4% (actual rate was 2.94% in the fourth quarter of 2025), its EBITDA would better meet expectations and stabilize at around $287 million per quarter, compared to $285 million in the third quarter of 2025. The bank stated that the increase in gaming volume was roughly offset by rising costs, with daily operating expenses rising by 4% to $2.85 million per quarter, mainly due to the full-season operation of the Gourmet Pavilion and increased seasonal marketing promotions nearing the end of the year. Promotional incentives also increased by 16% per quarter, accounting for 17.9% of total gaming revenue, compared to 17.6% and 15.2% in the second and third quarters of 2025 respectively, mainly due to the shift in gaming revenue mix towards the VIP room sector, which saw a 43% increase in turnover per quarter, while mid-tier gaming revenue declined by 1% per quarter due to a win rate (19.6%) lower than the 20% to 22% range in the past few seasons.