Strategy (MSTR.US) founder Saylor "toughs out" the short: will not sell even if bitcoin falls 90%, will address debt pressure through refinancing.

At a time when the price of Bitcoin continues to significantly drop, Michael Saylor, founder and CEO of Strategy (MSTR.US), publicly denied on Tuesday that the company would liquidate its holdings due to the decline in Bitcoin, and reiterated confidence in the company's financing capability and the long-term value of Bitcoin. In an interview, Saylor stated that even if Bitcoin were to drop by 90% in the next four years, Strategy would not be forced to sell Bitcoin, but would choose to handle debt pressure through refinancing. "If Bitcoin drops by 90%, we will restructure debt," he said, emphasizing that banks are willing to continue lending to the company because they recognize the inherent value of Bitcoin's volatility itself. In recent years, Strategy has aggressively purchased Bitcoin by issuing stocks and debt, currently holding a total of 714,644 Bitcoins with an average purchase cost of around $76,056. As the price of Bitcoin drops below $70,000, significantly down from the historical high of around $126,000 in October of last year, there has been a noticeable divergence in the market regarding Strategy's financial model and risk exposure. With the increasing downward pressure on Bitcoin, investors betting on Strategy's stock price to further decline are rapidly increasing. According to an analysis report released by S3 Partners on Tuesday, short positions on Strategy have accumulated by approximately 40% since September 2025. Currently, around 30.5 million shares are being shorted, accounting for about 10% of the company's float. At the same time, Strategy's stock price has also faced selling pressure from both long and short parties. Since reaching a 52-week high of $455.9 in July of last year, the stock price has dropped by about 70%, currently at $136.94. S3 pointed out that early short positions were mainly for hedging arbitrage related to Strategy's $8.2 billion convertible bonds, with shorts using stock sales to hedge against the downward risk of holding bonds. In addition, well-known short investor Jim Chanos's Kynikos Associates had also engaged in arbitrage trading by "buying Bitcoin, shorting Strategy," as the company's stock price had once significantly exceeded the net value of its Bitcoin assets. However, S3 stated that this structure has changed. Since mid-September of last year, short positions related to convertible bond arbitrage have decreased by around 2.5 to 5 million shares, while total short positions on Strategy have increased by about 9.2 million shares during the same period. This suggests that the new shorts are more directly betting against Strategy itself and the price of Bitcoin. S3 stated in the report, "Short sellers are increasingly focused on the pressure facing Strategy's financing model." In addition to price fluctuations, a potential risk repeatedly mentioned by short sellers is the development of quantum computing technology. S3 stated that quantum computers with super high computing power could theoretically break blockchain encryption protocols, shaking the security of crypto assets and investor confidence. Each breakthrough in quantum technology could serve as a catalyzing factor in undermining confidence in crypto assets. S3 pointed out, "If the development of quantum computing is seen by the market as a negative factor for Bitcoin, investors will repeatedly face new uncertainties as technology advances." Bitcoin has been experiencing continuous and intense volatility recently, with market sentiment remaining fragile. On Tuesday, the price of Bitcoin remained below $70,000. Previously, Bitcoin briefly rebounded on Monday and returned above $70,000, but this rebound was not sustained. Last week, amid a collective pullback in large-cap tech stocks in the US, Bitcoin briefly dropped to $60,000 on February 6 and triggered forced liquidation of some crypto assets. Analyst Ed Engel from Compass Point stated that there is still a risk for Bitcoin to retest $60,000 and possibly drop to the range of $55,000 to $60,000. However, he also pointed out that Bitcoin's average purchase cost (around $56,000) and the 200-day moving average (around $58,000) are converging, making it difficult to sustain a continuous drop. Engel believes that the high volatility in the cryptocurrency market will continue in the near future and may limit the formation of a clear trend in price direction.