Overnight US stocks | The Dow hits another record high as "a lone bright spot", while Bitcoin falls below $70,000. Western Digital Corporation (WDC.US) drops more than 8%.

On Tuesday, the three major indexes saw mixed performance. The Dow rose to the highest level of 50,512.79 points, hitting a new intraday high. The latest retail sales report shows that consumer spending in December remained flat, lower than economists' expectations of a 0.4% monthly increase. Retail sales in November increased by 0.6%. Investors are waiting for the January non-farm payroll report to be released on Wednesday. [US Stock] At the close, the Dow rose 52.27 points, or 0.10%, to 50,188.14 points; the Nasdaq fell 136.20 points, or 0.59%, to 23,102.47 points; the S&P 500 fell 23.01 points, or 0.33%, to 6,941.81 points. NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA.US) dropped nearly 1%, S&P Global, Inc. (SPGI.US) dropped nearly 10%, Intel Corporation (INTC.US) dropped by 6%, Western Digital Corporation (WDC.US) dropped by over 8%. The Nasdaq Golden Dragon Index rose by 0.87%, Alibaba Group Holding Limited Sponsored ADR (BABA.US) rose by 2%, Dingdong (Cayman) Ltd. Sponsored ADR Class A (DDL.US) rose by 7%. [European Stock] The German DAX30 index fell 1.37 points, or 0.01%, to 25,003.37 points; the UK's FTSE 100 index fell 32.01 points, or 0.31%, to 10,354.22 points; the French CAC40 index rose 4.60 points, or 0.06%, to 8,327.88 points; the Euro Stoxx 50 index fell 10.85 points, or 0.18%, to 6,048.16 points; the Spanish IBEX35 index fell 70.89 points, or 0.39%, to 18,124.21 points; the Italian FTSE MIB index fell 26.31 points, or 0.06%, to 46,796.50 points. [Cryptocurrency] Bitcoin fell below $70,000, dropping over 2% to $68,698. Ethereum fell by 4.5% to $2,010. [US Dollar Index] The US Dollar Index, which measures the dollar against six major currencies, fell 0.02% that day, closing at 96.799 in the forex market. At the close of the New York forex market, 1 euro was exchanged for $1.1894, lower than the previous trading day of $1.1921; 1 pound was exchanged for $1.3666, lower than the previous trading day of $1.3699. 1 US dollar was exchanged for 154.49 Japanese yen, lower than the previous trading day of 155.68 Japanese yen; 1 US dollar was exchanged for 0.7682 Swiss francs, higher than the previous trading day of 0.7660 Swiss francs; 1 US dollar was exchanged for 1.3551 Canadian dollars, lower than the previous trading day of 1.3557 Canadian dollars; 1 US dollar was exchanged for 8.9021 Swedish Krona, lower than the previous trading day of 8.9094 Swedish Krona. [Precious Metals] Spot gold fell 0.74% to $5022.97 per ounce; spot silver was at $80.818 per ounce. Wells Fargo & Company stated that the recent pullback in gold prices is a healthy correction after a significant increase earlier. The price of spot gold has dropped by over 10% from the record high set at the end of January, mainly due to profit-taking after the price rose more than 30% above the 200-day moving average. The bank has raised its target price for gold to $6,100 to $6,300 per ounce by 2026, suggesting more than a 20% increase, citing political risks from GEO Group Inc, market volatility, and strong central bank demand. [Oil] WTI crude oil prices for March on the New York market fell by 0.6% to $63.96 per barrel; Brent crude oil for April fell by 0.4% to $68.80 per barrel. [Macro News] US December Retail Sales Unexpectedly Stagnant as Holiday Season Ends Weakly. US December retail sales unexpectedly stagnated, indicating that consumers were more cautious with their spending at the end of the year. Data from the US Department of Commerce on Tuesday showed that non-inflation-adjusted retail sales remained flat after a 0.6% growth in November. Sales excluding auto dealers and fuel stations also remained flat. Among the 13 retail categories, eight showed declines including clothing stores and furniture stores. Auto dealer sales also dropped. Meanwhile, spending at building material stores and sporting goods retailers increased. These data show that consumer spending momentum weakened as the holiday shopping season came to a close. While many economists expect tax refunds to support demand in the early part of the year, households remain unhappy with high living costs and concerns over the job market. The breadth of consumer spending is also a concern. The wealth created by the stock market rally may stimulate demand, but there are signs that non-essential spending by low-income Americans, mainly relying on moderate wage growth, is not as strong. US Loan Default Rate Soars to Near Decade-High. In the fourth quarter, the delinquency rate on various types of loans, including mortgages and credit cards, in the US rose to 4.8% of total household debt, the highest level since 2017, driven mainly by increased defaults among low-income groups and young borrowers. Data from the New York Fed on Tuesday showed that while the overall proportion of loans in default is approaching pre-pandemic levels, the rise in default rates among the lowest income group further confirms the increasingly diverging trend in the US economy. The rise in default rates is mainly driven by delinquencies on mortgage loans, particularly pronounced in low-income ZIP code areas. Student loan delinquencies have rebounded significantly after repayment requirements were suspended during the pandemic, also weighing on the overall default increase. The percentage of credit card loans overdue by at least 90 days rose to 12.7%, the highest since the first quarter of 2011; severely delinquent auto loans rose to 5.2%, close to the record set in 2010. Around 16.3% of student loans became delinquent in the fourth quarter, marking the largest increase in this data since records began in 2004. Fed's Lael Brainard: "Cautiously Optimistic" on Current Rate Effects, Alert to High Inflation Risks. Fed's Brainard said on Tuesday that she is "cautiously optimistic" about whether the Fed's current policy rate level can sustain stable employment while pushing inflation back to a 2% target, with economic data in the coming months testing this assessment. Brainard stated: "If this proves out, it would suggest that our policy stance is appropriate, and further rate cuts may not be needed to achieve our dual-mandate goals." However, she added that if inflation recedes while the labor market noticeably cools, "further rate cuts may become appropriate." However, she expressed more concern about inflation stubbornly remaining high. She stated that after three rate cuts last year, downside risks to the labor market "seem to have abated significantly," but this has also posed additional risks in terms of inflation. With short-term borrowing costs already in what is widely estimated to be a "neutral" policy range, the current rate level has limited constraints on the economy's strong rebound and inflation running above the Fed's target over the past five years, Brainard forecasted progress in inflation this year, with some initial signs of improvement. Fed's Loretta Mester: No Urgent Need for Rate Cuts by Fed This Year. Cleveland Fed President Mester said on Tuesday that against the backdrop of a "cautiously optimistic" view of economic activity, there is no urgent need for the Fed to adjust its rate policy stance this year. Given the potential outlook, "we may maintain the setting of the interest rate target within the target range for quite some time." She said, "I think we're in a good place where we can keep the federal funds rate at its current level and see how the situation develops," and that monetary policy is most likely to be close to a position that does not suppress or stimulate economic activity. "Rather than trying to finely adjust rates, I prefer to be patient while assessing the impact of recent rate cuts and observe economic performance." Mester pointed out that the economic outlook remains positive, but also emphasized that inflation is still "too high," and said it is crucial for price pressures to fall in the face of the risk of inflation staying around 3% this year. In terms of hiring, relevant information indicates that the current situation is relatively stable. CME Group Inc. Class A to Launch Single Stock Futures Products this Summer. CME Group Inc. Class A announced today that it plans to launch single stock futures products this summer, subject to completing all regulatory reviews and processes. This new series of products will allow market participants to trade futures contracts for over 50 leading US stocks in the S&P 500 Index, Nasdaq 100 Index, and Russell 1000 Index, including Alphabet, Meta, NVIDIA Corporation, and Tesla, Inc., all settled in cash. Tim McCourt, Global Head of Equity, Foreign Exchange, and Alternative Products at CME Group, stated, "These contracts will provide investors with a simpler, more cost-effective way to express views on individual stocks and allow market participants to gain exposure or hedge against potential price fluctuations without directly buying stocks." These contracts will be listed on CME and subject to their trading rules. US Stock Trading Volume Surpasses $1 Trillion per Day in January. The scale of fund flows in the US stock market has reached a new high with daily stock trading volume in January surpassing $1 trillion, as high trading volume becomes the new norm. This surge marks a significant increase compared to the same period last year. Compilation data shows that the daily trading volume in January reached a record $1.03 trillion, an increase of about 50% from the same period in 2025. The daily volume of shares traded was approximately 19 billion shares, ranking as the second-highest in history. As the US stock market hovers near historic highs, trading activity has risen among retail investors and institutional funds. However, with concerns about overvaluation, the continuous influx of funds also exposes participants to higher risks. Analyst Jackson Gutenplan stated that trading activity from retail investors, market makers, quantitative trading firms, and hedge funds is increasing, with unprecedented levels of automated trading. Data shows that over the past 13 months, daily trading volume has exceeded 15 billion shares each month, a situation that only occurred three times before 2025. [Stock News] Boeing Company Ramps Up 737 Production Capacity. Boeing Company's executive said at a conference in northern Seattle that the company plans to increase the monthly production rate of its core product, the 737 series aircraft, to 63 aircraft in the coming years. Boeing Company's 737 project lead Katie Ringgold stated at The Pacific Northwest Aviation Alliance conference on Tuesday that the company has installed equipment in a traditional wide-body aircraft factory to support a new 737 final assembly line and is hiring mechanics and engineers, preparing to start production in mid-year. She stated that the production of this narrow-body aircraft should increase by about 15% over the next 18 months. Maintaining a steady increase in the production pace of 737 aircraft is crucial for Boeing Company to turn around its financial situation and pay off its debt, as this model is a key source of the company's revenue. Stellantis Seeks to Exit US Battery Joint Venture with Samsung. Automaker Stellantis (STLA.US) is seeking to exit its US battery joint venture with South Korea's Samsung SDI. This comes after the company announced last week that it would write down over 22 billion euros (about $26 billion) in asset impairment as it shrinks its electric car footprint and aims to preserve cash. The cost of exiting the joint venture could be high, and the process may be lengthy. Stellantis may also sell its stake to a third party. Pressure from electric vehicle and battery projects has brought challenges to the company after former President Trump took measures to weaken plug-in vehicles. CEO Antonio Filosa is working to curb related losses. Stellantis and Samsung established the joint venture in Indiana in 2021, committing to invest $2.5 billion and create 1,400 new jobs in Kokomo, the only battery plant Samsung has in the US, which began production in 2024, and has started producing some battery units for energy storage. [Major Rating Updates] Morgan Stanley: Maintains Neutral Rating on Tesla, Inc. (TSLA.US) with $415 Target Price Deutsche Bank Aktiengesellschaft: Raises Micron Technology, Inc. (MU.US) Price Target from $300 to $500