China Gold: China's hydrogen energy strategy is firm, optimistic about the long-term development of the fuel cell industry.

China International Capital Corporation released a research report stating that during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, the promotion progress of fuel cell vehicles is lower than expected, there is still a gap from the target, and the fuel cell industry generally faces issues such as weak growth, poor profitability, and a buildup of accounts receivable. Although the industry is facing short-term pressure, China's hydrogen energy strategy remains clear, and there is an expectation of new support policies being introduced, as well as the continuous expansion of application scenarios. The fuel cell industry is expected to gradually overcome short-term difficulties and has great development potential in the long term. It is optimistic about the medium and long-term development of the fuel cell industry and suggests paying attention to companies like SINOHYTEC (02402) and REFIRE (02570) which are fuel cell system manufacturers. Key points from China International Capital Corporation include: In the fourth quarter of 2025, there was a surge in the installation of fuel cell vehicles, but there is still a gap to reach the phased target by 2025. In terms of sales, since 2024, the growth momentum of fuel cell vehicle sales has been insufficient, and due to policy windows, there was a surge in the installation of fuel cell vehicles in the fourth quarter of 2025. In terms of prices, the average price of fuel cell systems has decreased by nearly 90% since 2018, and the rapid price decline poses a major challenge to the profitability of fuel cell manufacturers, with the industry still in a trough phase overall. Costs, infrastructure, and corporate cash flow are the three major bottlenecks restricting the promotion of fuel cell vehicles. The promotion of fuel cell vehicles still faces multiple challenges: firstly, the cost disadvantage is highlighted under the subsidy reduction, exacerbating the squeeze on electric vehicles; secondly, the construction speed of hydrogen stations in recent years is lower than expected, and the issue of hydrogen convenience is difficult to solve, with the high cost of building hydrogen stations leading to insufficient investment drive; and thirdly, the long payment cycle of subsidies and the buildup of accounts receivable will put pressure on company operations and may limit the research and expansion capabilities of fuel cell manufacturers. With a firm hydrogen energy strategy and the emergence of new scenarios, significant long-term development is expected. Despite short-term pressures, China positions hydrogen energy as an important part of the future national energy system and as a key way to achieve carbon neutrality in non-electric fields. On the policy front, the continuous advancement of hydrogen energy industry planning in many regions, as well as the successive implementation of support policies such as toll reduction and "hydrogen corridors", are seen. On the application front, the application of fuel cells is penetrating into multiple areas such as power generation, energy storage, and rail transit from transportation, and a second growth curve is anticipated to support the industry's medium to long-term development. Risk factors include policies falling behind expectations, fuel cell and hydrogen energy cost reduction falling behind expectations, and intensified industry competition.