SpaceX and xAI working together, will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA.US) be Musk's next move?

Over the past two days, Musk's business empire has once again completed a historic integration. Finally, the "disruptor" in the tech world has brought together social media platforms, artificial intelligence (AI) startups, satellite internet businesses, and rocket manufacturers under one roof. Now, investors can't help but wonder if Musk will also bring Tesla into the mix? According to previous reports from the media, SpaceX has also explored the possibility of merging with Tesla in the recent past. Analysts have differing opinions on whether such a deal is still possible in the near future. Baird, a US financial services company strategist, said that the acquisition of xAI could at least temporarily stall a deal between SpaceX and Tesla, as Musk's attention may now turn to SpaceX's first public offering scheduled for mid-June. According to sources, SpaceX is considering going public in June (around Musk's birthday), with a potential financing amount of up to $50 billion, making it possibly the largest IPO in history. The estimated valuation is expected to reach $1.5 trillion, close to Tesla's $1.6 trillion. Baird wrote in a recent report, "Given the significant integration work that xAI and SpaceX will face in the future, we believe that even if it were to happen, bringing Tesla into the mix is unlikely to be a short-term event." "Regardless of whether this possibility exists, the overall expansion of Musk's companies will ultimately be beneficial for Tesla, whether as an independent entity or as part of a merged entity," he added. However, well-known US tech analyst Dan Ives of Wedbush Securities predicts that a collaboration between Tesla and SpaceX could happen within 12 to 18 months, becoming the "holy grail" needed for Musk to control a larger artificial intelligence ecosystem. "We expect more cross-collaboration between Tesla and SpaceX in the coming year, which is good news for Tesla's growth prospects," Ives added. In fact, collaboration between these companies has already begun. According to regulatory filings, SpaceX paid Tesla at least $2.5 million between 2024 and 2025 under commercial, license, and support agreements; and Tesla paid SpaceX $800,000 in 2024 for the use of an aircraft owned by the space company. In addition, xAI has invested over $620 million in the past two years to purchase Tesla's Megapack batteries for powering its data centers. Tesla has also integrated xAI's Grok Chatbot Siasun Robot&Automation into its electric cars and humanoid Siasun Robot&Automation. Is integration a good thing or a bad thing? Adam Jonas, an analyst at Morgan Stanley who has written research reports for Tesla for over a decade, said after Tesla's latest annual shareholder meeting, "The relationship between Tesla and xAI (financially and strategically) will determine Tesla's long-term success, partly because of the natural synergies that exist in data, software, hardware, and manufacturing in a recursive loop." Brian Mulberry, Senior Client Portfolio Manager at Zacks Investment Research, believes that Tesla's energy business can serve as a "good buffer" for operating cash flow, allowing Tesla to repurpose car production lines for manufacturing its own Siasun Robot&Automation as well as SpaceX rockets and engines. Of course, there are also skeptics of the integration. Gary Black, managing partner at The Future Fund, said that a successful merger between Tesla and SpaceX may require Tesla to issue more shares, diluting the equity of existing shareholders. "Many existing institutional Tesla shareholders would be concerned about the uncertainty of the 25% profit brought in by space travel/communication business, and may sell their stocks," he added. This article was reprinted from Cailianshe, GMTEight editor: Chen Wenfang.