Bank of America warns that the precious metals market has entered an era of "big ups and downs", and intense fluctuations are likely to continue.
The latest report from Bank of America pointed out that the intense fluctuations in the precious metals market may continue after gold and silver have sharply dropped from historical highs.
The latest report from Bank of America points out that after gold and silver sharply fell from historical highs, the precious metals market is expected to continue experiencing a volatile period, and investors will still need to face a "highly volatile environment" in the short term.
The bank stated that based on volatility indicators, the instability of the current gold price has reached the highest level since the most severe period of the 2008 financial crisis, while the turbulence in the silver market has set an extreme record since 1980.
Looking back on last month, gold and silver continued their strong upward trend driven by speculative funds, escalating geopolitical risks, and increasing concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve. However, this frenzy came to a sudden halt over the weekend, with gold experiencing its biggest weekly drop in over a decade, and silver recording its most brutal single-day decline in history.
Niklas Westermark, head of commodities trading in Europe, the Middle East, and Africa at Bank of America, said, "Market volatility will remain above historical average levels in the long term, but unless a new speculative bubble emerges, it will not be as extreme as in the past few days."
He pointed out that the sharp declines in the past two trading days have to some extent completed a "shakeout", clearing out over-extended speculative positions and restoring market structure.
With prices sharply pulling back, buying interest flooded in on Tuesday at lower levels, driving a strong rebound in precious metals. Gold futures rose 6.1% on the day, climbing back above $4,900 per ounce, marking the largest single-day gain in the main contract since March 2009, and attempting to re-reclaim the $5,000 integer level.
Previously, gold briefly broke through the historical high of $5,400 per ounce last week, but subsequently fell for two consecutive days and dropped below $5,000.
ADM Investor Services pointed out in a report that some investors took profits at high levels over the weekend, and this rapid decline provided a "new entry window" for the market to reallocate gold.
Silver also saw a significant rebound, with the main contract rising 8.2% to $83.042 per ounce, indicating funds are starting to refill positions after the sharp adjustment.
Westermark believes that compared to silver, gold has a more solid long-term investment logic. While high prices and increased volatility may affect investors' position sizes, it will not weaken overall interest in the gold market.
Analysts suggest that after experiencing a "bubble-like top" and rapid sell-off, the precious metals market may enter a period of high volatility and oscillation in the short term. Investors need to be vigilant for sharp retracements driven by emotions, while also keeping an eye on macroeconomic risks and changes in Federal Reserve policy expectations that could further impact gold and silver prices.
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