The critical talks between the United States and Iran in Istanbul enter the "final window," with the oil and gold markets holding their breath in anticipation.

Senior officials from the United States and Iran are expected to hold a key meeting in Istanbul, Turkey on February 6, 2026. The meeting, coordinated by Turkey, aims to restart stalled nuclear agreement negotiations and ease the escalating situation in the Middle East. This meeting is seen by global financial markets as the "last window" to avoid regional conflict, and its success or failure will directly impact the security of global oil supply and the volatility of safe-haven assets such as gold. According to sources familiar with the matter, the Istanbul summit will be attended by American special envoy Steve Witkoff, President Donald Trump's son-in-law Jared Kushner, and the Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi. Sources also state that foreign ministers from some regional powers may also join the meeting, but request to remain anonymous due to sensitivity. This meeting will be the first public contact between US and Iranian officials since tensions escalated in recent times. In preparation for the meeting, President Trump adopted a dual strategy of "diplomacy and military pressure." Trump has warned in recent public statements that if a fair agreement cannot be reached through negotiations, the US may take harsh measures including military strikes. He has already deployed a large navy fleet to the Middle East, bringing the shadow of another war into view following last year's US attack on Iranian nuclear facilities. Meanwhile, Iranian President Pezeshkian showed a moderate stance in his latest statement on February 3, stating that he has instructed the Foreign Ministry to seek negotiations on the basis of "dignity and fairness" and without threats. This shift is mainly attributed to intense behind-the-scenes mediation by regional powers such as Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Egypt. According to an informed official, Witkoff is expected to arrive in Israel on Tuesday for consultations with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his senior security officials. Since Iran's deadly crackdown on mass protests last month, Trump has threatened to strike Iran. Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei warned on Sunday that any attack on his country would trigger a "regional war." From a capital market perspective, signs of easing relations between the US and Iran have provided some reassurance to the highly volatile international energy markets in recent times. Market analysts believe that the holding of the Istanbul meeting has initially signaled Tehran's and Washington's willingness to manage the crisis through dialogue. However, significant differences still exist between the two sides on core issues such as uranium enrichment limits, missile development, and sanctions relief, making the prospects for negotiations uncertain. Investors are closely watching whether the February 6 meeting will produce a substantive framework memorandum, as this will not only determine whether Iranian oil can return to the international market in compliance, but also reshape the long-term investment logic in the geopolitics of the Middle East.