Brokerage Morning Meeting Highlights | AI bubble is still premature but may need to digest accumulated gains.

Yesterday, the market fluctuated and rose, with all three major indexes rising by more than 1%. The ChiNext Index hit a bottom and rebounded after falling by more than 1% earlier. The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets reached 3.6 trillion, breaking through 3 trillion for the second consecutive trading day, with an increase of 478.7 billion compared to the previous trading day, setting a new historical record in trading volume since October 8, 2024. On the market, hotspots were active one after another, with over 4100 stocks rising, including 201 stocks hitting the limit up. At the close, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.09%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 1.75%, and the ChiNext Index rose by 1.82%. At the brokerage morning meeting today, Open Source Securities believes that the AI bubble is still premature, but the cumulative gains may need to be digested; CITIC SEC is optimistic about the aluminum sector's profitable valuation rally; Soochow believes that the market's expectation of a rate cut by the Fed has been delayed, and the rebound of Hong Kong stocks needs to be observed more closely. Open Source Securities: The AI bubble is still premature, but the cumulative gains may need to be digested The appearance of a bubble often depends on the "size of the container." In the context of loose liquidity in China and the US, a bullish A-share valuation, and strong policy support for the development of technology industries (high prosperity), it is believed that the AI bubble is still premature, but the pressure of positions and cumulative gains may need to be digested at any time. The core factor of "the strong get stronger" still lies in G. If G begins to show signs of weakness, it may be in the process of digesting valuations and returning to value growth. Currently, there is no significant turning point in G. Therefore, it is more likely that AI hardware will continue to follow the bullish valuation environment. CITIC SEC: Optimistic about the aluminum sector's profitable valuation rally Looking ahead to 2026, it is expected that the demand for aluminum for photovoltaics will decline, while the electricity grid and automotive sectors will continue to be prosperous. The growth of energy storage and air conditioning aluminum replacing copper is expected to accelerate, supporting the growth of demand for electrolytic aluminum. Despite the addition of capacity in Indonesia, the trend of the industry supply growth rate moving downward is still evident, and signs of disturbance are gradually emerging. It is expected that the central price of aluminum will reach 23,000 yuan per ton in 2026, and we continue to be optimistic about the profitable valuation rally in the aluminum sector. Soochow: The market expects the Fed's rate cut to be delayed, and the rebound of Hong Kong stocks needs to be observed more closely The December unemployment rate in the US in 2025 fell more than expected, and the market expects the first rate cut to be delayed until June. In the annual outlook, the expectation for the number of rate cuts by the Fed is more cautious than the market, predicting 1-2 times throughout the year, and this judgment is still maintained. Looking at the economic fundamentals, there are not many windows left for the Fed to cut interest rates this year, and the stimulative effect of loose fiscal policy on the economy is still on the way. If the Fed does not cut interest rates in the first quarter, the pace of rebound in Hong Kong stocks will need to be observed more closely. Ignoring the impact of exchange rates, more positive news is still needed for the fundamental outlook of companies. This article is reproduced from "Cai Lian She", GMTEight Editor: Jiang Yuanhua.