China Great Wall: The industry is gradually moving towards advanced intelligent driving, sustainable optimism for investment opportunities in related industry chains.

date
15:26 19/12/2025
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GMT Eight
With the gradual penetration of high-level intelligent driving into the 100,000-200,000 RMB vehicle segment, the equality of intelligent driving will gradually be realized. The bank continues to be optimistic about investment opportunities in the intelligent driving industry chain.
China Great Wall released a research report stating that the first batch of L3 conditional autonomous driving models in China have received official conditional access permits. From the industry perspective, continuous exploration of L3-level intelligent driving is pushing the industry towards high-level intelligent driving. From a policy perspective, the pilot of L3-level intelligent driving and its subsequent comprehensive rollout will require top-level guidance from regulatory policies. The industry believes that leading manufacturers at home and abroad continue to make breakthroughs in intelligent driving, marking a period of rapid industry development. With high-level intelligent driving gradually reaching 10-20 million vehicles, the democratization of intelligent driving will gradually come true, and the industry continues to be optimistic about investment opportunities in the intelligent driving industry. Key points from China Great Wall: Event: On December 15, 2025, the official website of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology showed that the first batch of L3 conditional autonomous driving models in China, including the Changan SC7000AAARBEV pure electric sedan and the Ji Hu BJ7001A61NBEV pure electric sedan, have been officially granted conditional access permits. The industry continues to explore L3-level intelligent driving, gradually moving towards high-level intelligent driving. Specifically, this L3 access still has various conditions, as reported by Intelligent Driving Network. The main conditions are focused on four aspects: - L3 driving remains experimental and is limited to specific cities. Chongqing Changan Automobile is only permitted to drive on specific routes in Chongqing, while Ji Hu is limited to specific routes in Beijing, and both are not allowed to operate in other cities or routes. - L3 implementation still follows a gradual route, starting with highway and urban expressway scenarios. Both have not reached NOA standards, and only allow automatic driving on single lanes, with no automatic lane changing allowed. Speed limits vary in different cities, with Chongqing Changan Automobile limited to a maximum speed of 50km/h in Chongqing, and Ji Hu limited to a maximum speed of 80km/h in Beijing. According to the Shanghai Securities News, Huawei's Hongcheng Intelligent Driving has collaborated with the Shenzhen Municipal Transportation Bureau to conduct L3 conditional autonomous driving tests in Shenzhen. Intelligent cars equipped with Huawei's Hongcheng ADS high-speed L3 solution are conducting road tests in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Hefei, Wuhan, and Chongqing. Additionally, on December 16, Xiaopeng Motors announced that it had obtained an L3 automated driving road test license in Guangzhou and had started regular L3 road tests. Continuous policy efforts are being made to further facilitate the commercial closing of the intelligent driving ecosystem. From a policy perspective, the pilot and subsequent comprehensive rollout of L3-level intelligent driving require top-level guidance from regulatory policies. As early as November 2023, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other agencies jointly released the "Notice on Carrying out the Pilot Work of Access and Road Pass for Intelligent Connected Vehicles": - Automatic driving vehicles with L3 automated driving (conditional automated driving) and L4 automated driving (highly automated driving) capabilities can be selected by the four ministries for access and conduct on-road pilot tests in designated areas. In June 2024, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology announced the list of participants in the pilot program for intelligent connected vehicles: Changan, BYD Company Limited, GAC, SAIC, BAIC BluePark New Energy Technology, FAW, SAIC Hongyan, Yutong Bus Co., Ltd., and NIO. In September 2025, eight ministries, including the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, released the "Automobile Industry Growth Stabilization Plan (2025-2026)," proposing to "conditionally approve the production access of L3-level automated driving models" and promote the improvement of relevant laws and regulations, further accelerating the implementation of industry policies. On the urban front, testing roads are continuously expanding. According to Beijing Science and Technology Network, Shanghai Pudong New Area designated 583 roads totaling 758.62 kilometers for the third batch of open road tests for autonomous driving in March of this year, specifically in areas such as Zhangjiang, Expo, and Huamu. Beijing is promoting the demonstration zone method to expand the automatic driving demonstration zone to approximately 3,000 square kilometers, and has issued road test licenses to 33 testing enterprises and nearly 900 vehicles. Wuhan's commercial operation of unmanned driving-related open road mileage has surpassed 3,829 kilometers. The intelligent driving market has vast potential, and the industry continues to be optimistic about related investment opportunities. According to IDC's predictions, the global scale of connected cars will reach 78.3 million by 2025, with a compound annual growth rate of 11.5% over five years. Additionally, the global scale of autonomous driving vehicles will reach 89.3 million by 2026, with a compound annual growth rate of 14.8% over five years. The industry believes that leading manufacturers at home and abroad continue to make breakthroughs in intelligent driving, with hardware components like vehicle-mounted large models inevitably requiring information collection functions such as vehicle-mounted LiDAR, while the hardware side will also become the concrete manifestation of software intelligence. The key recommendations are to focus on investing in hardware components like modules and LiDAR; and end-to-end large models are expected to become the mainstream solution due to their high-speed iteration and low-cost advantages. As high-level intelligent driving gradually penetrates into 10-20 million vehicles, the democratization of intelligent driving will gradually be realized, and the industry remains optimistic about investment opportunities in the intelligent driving industry. Recommended targets to focus on: Control Controllers: Weirui Hengrun, Foryou Corporation, Huizhou Desay SV Automotive, Ningbo Joyson Electronic Corp., Shenzhen Longtech Smart Control, Shenzhen H&T Intelligent Control, Shenzhen Topband; Connected Car/Modules: Thunder Software Technology, Wuhan Kotei Informatics, MeiG Smart Technology, Fibocom Wireless Inc., Quectel Wireless Solutions, SeeWay.ai Co., Ltd.; LiDAR/Optics: Hesai Technology, Speed Racer Innovative, Dongguan Yutong Optical Technology, Ningbo Yong Xin Optics. Risk warning: Intensifying market competition risk; Risk of key technology breakthroughs falling short of expectations; Below-expected downstream demand; Risk of fluctuating raw material prices.