The "hot effect" of new stocks encounters cold, and the listing of Xidi Intelligent Driving (03881) breaks on the first day.

On December 19th, at a time when the smart driving concept sector in the Hong Kong stock market was rising rapidly, a newly listed smart driving concept stock encountered a "cold reception" in the market. On that day, stimulated by the official announcement from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology of China granting conditional access permits to the first batch of L3-level automated driving vehicle models, the smart driving concept sector in the Hong Kong stock market surged. By the deadline for this report, the sector had risen by nearly 1%, with MINIEYE (02431) and Zhejiang Shibao (01057) both rising by more than 10%. Stocks related to the concept, such as ZhiXing Auto, Xiaopeng Auto, BLACK SESAME, also saw significant rises. However, contrary to this trend, Hidi's Smart Drive (03881), as a new smart driving stock listed that day, received a different treatment - as soon as the market opened, the company's stock price fell by nearly 1%, and about twenty minutes later, it began a steep decline, dropping by over 15% at one point. The stock price continued to fluctuate around a decline of 10%, closing at a loss of 8.37% by noon, trading at 241 Hong Kong dollars with a total market value of 105.53 Hong Kong dollars, with a net outflow of funds of 30.9675 million Hong Kong dollars. In the pre-market trading on the previous trading day at Futu, Hidi's Smart Drive also closed down by 5.48%, trading at 248.60 Hong Kong dollars, with a turnover of 12.24 million Hong Kong dollars, with 10 shares per lot, excluding transaction fees, resulting in a loss of 144 Hong Kong dollars per lot. As for the reasons why Hidi's Smart Drive, as a new smart driving stock, encountered a cold reception on its first day of listing, it may be due to several factors. Hidi's Smart Drive was not particularly popular in the secondary market, as evidenced by its subscription results. The company globally issued 540.798 million H shares, with 10% allocated for public offering in Hong Kong and 90% for international offering. The final offering price was 263 Hong Kong dollars per share, raising approximately 1.309 billion Hong Kong dollars in net proceeds from the global offering. The public offering in Hong Kong was oversubscribed by 22.55 times, while the international offering was oversubscribed by 2.1 times. Since 2025, the popularity of new listings in the Hong Kong stock market has been on the rise, with several key characteristics: Firstly, there is a frequent occurrence of oversubscriptions. According to Wind data, as of the first three quarters of 2025, there were 15 new stocks with subscription multiples exceeding a thousand times, with DAHON TECH having a subscription multiple as high as 7558.40 times, making it the "subscription king" of the quarter. BLOKS and INNOGEN-B also had impressive subscription multiples of 5999.96 times and 5341.66 times, respectively. Secondly, there is a significant money-making effect. A significant increase on the first day of trading is a high probability event, and remarkable stock price surges are not uncommon. For example, GUOXIA TECH's stock rose by nearly 118% on the first day of trading. Thirdly, there is a clear direction of fund inflows. In this period, investment funds were notably flowing towards tracks representing industrial upgrades, focusing on three major directions of hard technology, biopharmaceuticals, and new consumption. In this context, Hidi's Smart Drive, positioned in the blue ocean track of intelligent driving for commercial vehicles, also appeared to be in the "popular emerging industry" track. However, the subscription multiple for new listings did not seem to manifest the "hot effect" for Hidi's Smart Drive. This might be related to the fundamental aspects of Hidi's Smart Drive. According to GMTEight, Hidi's Smart Drive was established in 2017 and is a supplier of intelligent driving products and solutions for commercial vehicles in China. The company focuses on the research and development of automated driving trucks and V2X (vehicle-to-infrastructure) technology for mining and logistics in enclosed environments, as well as intelligent perception solutions. It provides proprietary technology-based products and solutions and has mainly focused on intelligent driving in enclosed environments in the past performance period. With its head start and technological barriers in the blue ocean track of smart driving for commercial vehicles in enclosed environments, Hidi's Smart Drive has demonstrated a certain level of high growth potential in terms of revenue. According to data from Zhishi Consultancy, based on product sales revenue in 2024, Hidi's Smart Drive ranked first in the Chinese market for automated mining truck solutions. What's more impressive is that the company delivered 56 automated mining trucks to a mining area in China, operating in the world's largest mixed fleet of approximately 500 manned trucks, forming the largest mixed-operation mining fleet globally. Backed by both its head start and technological barriers, as well as the development potential of the commercial vehicle smart driving industry, Hidi's Smart Drive has also demonstrated remarkable high growth potential. According to its prospectus, the company's revenue was 31.056 million yuan, 133 million yuan, 410 million yuan, and 408 million yuan from 2022 to the first half of 2025, with the revenue in the first half of 2025 already approaching the level of the full year of 2024. In just two and a half years, Hidi's Smart Drive has seen its revenue scale grow by more than 13 times, which undoubtedly showcases its outstanding fundamental performance. However, in contrast, its high losses and cash flow pressure present an unavoidable "poor B side" for Hidi's Smart Drive. From 2022 to the first half of 2025, the company incurred losses of 263 million yuan, 255 million yuan, 581 million yuan, and 455 million yuan respectively. The loss in 2024 even increased by nearly 128% compared to the previous year. This "increasing income without increasing profits," or even "earning more and losing more" phenomenon reveals the stage where the company currently stands: still in a phase that requires substantial investment to gain market position and scale in what can be seen as an "arms race" for the future. At the same time, with long-term losses, the company's operating cash flow has remained negative, totaling over 500 million yuan from 2022 to 2024. As of the end of June 2025, the company had cash and cash equivalents of 186 million yuan, while its current liabilities were as high as 2.795 billion yuan, indicating significant financial pressure. Taking into account all of the above performances, the "AB side" of Hidi's Smart Drive also demonstrates a distinct "high growth, high risk" investment characteristic. While Hidi's Smart Drive is following a pragmatic and high-potential path to commercialize automated driving, leading the way in a niche track, its investment seems more like a bet on future realization, making it difficult for most investors to confidently bet on its "high growth" under high risk.