Before the release of the November CPI in the United States, the market "raced ahead": US bond yields fell.

On Thursday, US government bond prices edged higher, with the market closely watching the upcoming release of the US November CPI report. Policymakers and investors will carefully analyze the report to look for clues on the prospects for monetary policy next year. Before the report was released, the yield on the 10-year US Treasury fell 2 basis points to 4.13%. This report is particularly significant because due to the previous US government shutdown, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics was unable to collect price data, resulting in the cancellation of the report for October. Because there is no comparable data for October, investors and Federal Reserve officials will have to rely on year-on-year data to assess the direction of inflation. The collection of data for November by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics has also been delayed due to the government shutdown, adding another element of uncertainty to this highly anticipated data. Given the significant differences in opinion among Federal Reserve officials on the direction of interest rates, the prospects for Fed monetary policy are currently uncertain, which could lead to a report that is difficult to interpret. Economists predict that the US November CPI year-on-year growth rate will be 3.1%, with core CPI year-on-year growth at 3%. Jordan Rochester, head of macro strategy at MUFG Bank, said, "The impact of US CPI data on trading will be slightly different. We need a major surprise to turn the situation around." On a busy day in global financial markets, various data have been released. The Bank of England and the European Central Bank announced their December interest rate decisions on Thursday. Investors are also closely monitoring news from US President Trump regarding his choice for the next Federal Reserve chairman. Trump stated on Wednesday evening that he will announce the pick "soon," and that the successor to Powell will be "someone who believes in low rates." The Fed's rate cut last week was the third of the year, but faced opposition from three sides, including two regional Fed presidents in favor of keeping rates unchanged, and Fed board member Stephen Moore, who advocated for a larger 50 basis point rate cut. Additionally, six policymakers submitted rate forecasts last week indicating they opposed this rate cut. This uncertainty has brought about uncertainty for investors looking ahead to 2026. Market median forecasts show that policymakers expect to cut rates by 25 basis points next year - once, while the money markets are betting on at least two rate cuts. Recently, there has been a significant shift in the pricing of rate cut prospects. Given the uncertainty of the pace of rate cuts, trading prices for 5-year US Treasury bonds are relatively better than for 2-year and 30-year bonds. This indicator has risen for seven consecutive days, marking the longest streak since March, with gains exceeding eight basis points, reaching 94 basis points. The higher this value, the higher the market's preference for 5-year bonds. People's attention is also increasingly shifting from inflation to cooling labor markets. Data released on Tuesday showed that the unemployment rate rose to 4.6% in November.