October net purchases of 49 tons! The central bank's purchase of gold remains strong. Goldman Sachs: "Tokenized gold" is not currently the main driver of gold prices.

Despite the sharp fluctuations in the market in October, global central banks have not reduced their enthusiasm for buying gold, providing solid support for the gold price, while the emerging "tokenized gold" has not yet become the main DRIVE in the market. According to news from Chasing the Wind Trading Desk, a latest report released by Goldman Sachs on December 12 showed that its "nowcast" model estimated that global central banks bought 49 tons of gold in October. This number is much higher than the average monthly level of 17 tons before 2022, indicating strong and sustained demand from official sectors. Among them, Qatar purchased 20 tons in October and China purchased 15 tons. Goldman Sachs analysts Lina Thomas and Daan Struyven believe that the central banks' strong and steady buying behavior during periods of high gold price volatility indicates that their decisions are not highly price-sensitive, but rather driven by long-term strategic considerations to hedge geopolitical and financial risks. Based on this strong official demand, combined with expectations of a more dovish future policy turn from the Federal Reserve, Goldman Sachs maintains its optimistic forecast for the gold price, expecting it to rise to $4,900 per ounce by the end of 2026. The bank also points out that the growth in private investor demand will be another major potential upward driver for the gold price. Central bank gold purchases: A "multi-year trend" to hedge risks Goldman Sachs emphasized in the report that it continues to view large-scale gold purchases by central banks as a "multi-year trend". Data in the report shows that the 49 tons of net purchases in October, as well as the 12-month moving average of 66 tons, were significantly higher than the monthly average level of 17 tons before 2022. Goldman Sachs analysts believe that the fundamental DRIVE of this trend is that central banks around the world are actively promoting asset diversification to hedge against escalating geopolitical and financial risks. This strategic allocation demand makes central bank buying behavior largely independent of short-term price fluctuations. Looking ahead, Goldman Sachs maintains its assumption that global central banks will buy an average of 70 tons of gold per month by 2026, indicating that official sector demand will continue to provide solid fundamental support for the gold market. Private investors entering the market could act as a "lever" for the gold price In addition to strong demand from official sectors, the behavior of private investors is seen by Goldman Sachs as a key variable affecting the future gold price. The report points out that if private investors' interest in gold allocation increases, it could have a significant "leverage effect" on the gold price. Goldman Sachs' model calculations show that for every 1 basis point (0.01%) increase in the share of gold in US private financial investment portfolios (defined as stocks and bonds), the gold price is expected to rise by about 1.4%. Currently, the most common tool for US investors to hold gold, gold ETFs, only accounts for 0.17% of the investment portfolio, indicating that positions are still low and there is significant potential for growth. Goldman Sachs expects that as the Federal Reserve may shift towards a more dovish monetary policy in the future, private investors' interest in gold will rise, and their capital inflows will work in conjunction with central bank gold purchases to jointly push up the gold price. "Tokenized gold": Worth paying attention to but limited impact Regarding the role of "tokenized gold" such as Tether Gold in the recent gold price rally, Goldman Sachs believes that its impact so far "appears limited". The report points out through data comparisons that in the third quarter of 2025, Tether Gold saw an increase in holdings of about 26 tons, while at the same time, Western gold ETF inflows were about 197 tons, and central bank purchases reached about 134 tons. Clearly, the incremental demand for tokenized gold is still relatively small compared to traditional channels. Goldman Sachs analysis suggests that tokenized gold is essentially similar to gold ETFs, both backed by physical gold and providing investors with price exposure. The difference lies in the ownership records being on the blockchain, which may lower entry barriers for some investors but may not necessarily add significant intrinsic value. Therefore, Goldman Sachs believes that tokenized gold is more likely to be a partial substitute for gold ETFs rather than a huge new source of demand, but this trend is still worth monitoring in the market. This article is a reprint from "Wall Street News", GMTEight Editor: Jiang Yuanhua.