Trade Breakthrough Imminent? Modi-Trump Call Sparks Hope Amidst ‘Best Ever’ Indian Offer

Recent discussions between U.S. President Donald Trump and Prime Minister Narendra Modi have injected new momentum into efforts to finalize a long-pending bilateral trade deal. Their call coincided with the conclusion of two days of intensive negotiations in New Delhi, signaling progress on narrowing differences and possibly easing the high American tariffs currently applied to Indian products.

According to Prime Minister Modi, the two leaders reviewed the trajectory of India–U.S. relations and exchanged perspectives on regional and international developments. He emphasized that both countries remain committed to working together to promote global stability and prosperity. Indian officials, along with U.S. Ambassador Sergio Gor—who portrayed the conversation as a friendly and positive one—suggested that the two sides agreed to sustain the recent progress in trade talks. Their discussion also touched on key areas of cooperation, including energy, defense, security, and emerging technologies, reinforcing the broad reach of the India–U.S. Comprehensive Global Strategic Partnership. The conversation came soon after Prime Minister Modi hosted Russian President Vladimir Putin, during which India and Russia pledged to expand their economic and security engagement. This occurred while Washington continues to urge New Delhi to curb its rising imports of Russian oil. Ambassador Gor added that Mr. Modi reiterated support for President Trump’s initiatives aimed at advancing peace in Ukraine.

The timing of the leaders’ outreach aligned with a notably optimistic tone from Washington regarding the trade negotiations. The United States Trade Representative, Jamieson Greer, told a Senate appropriations panel that India’s latest proposals were the most constructive the U.S. had ever received. He acknowledged that agricultural issues have historically complicated progress but said India now appears more willing to address U.S. concerns, making it an appealing market for American farm exports. Responding to these remarks, Indian Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal stated that if the U.S. is satisfied with the proposals, it should move forward with formalizing the agreement. Central to the ongoing discussions is the effort to resolve tariff disputes. U.S. duties on certain Indian goods had been sharply increased—reaching an effective rate of 50 percent—citing trade imbalances and India’s growing purchases of Russian crude. These higher duties have weighed on Indian exporters, with shipments to the U.S. in October falling by more than eight percent compared with the previous year.

India’s Chief Economic Adviser, V. Anantha Nageswaran, expressed confidence that the agreement could be completed by the end of the financial year in March. He acknowledged that the earlier target of November had been missed but suggested that most substantive issues have now been settled, making further delays unlikely. Nonetheless, the bilateral trade relationship remains complex. President Trump has recently suggested potential duties on Indian rice on the grounds of alleged dumping, even though India is the world’s leading rice exporter. For investors, the possibility that the U.S. might roll back the steep tariffs—particularly those linked to India’s trade with Russia—could significantly lower risks and reinvigorate export-dependent sectors such as apparel and engineering, for which the American market is the most important destination.