CMB International: AI-driven computing power and terminal innovation grasp high-end growth in differentiation.

CMB International released a research report stating that by 2026, the global technology industry will present a pattern of terminal demand differentiation and accelerated AI innovation. AI computing power demand remains high, high-end markets show resilience under the push of folding and AI functions, while low-end consumer electronics are under short-term pressure due to macroeconomic and cost pressures. It is recommended to focus on the opportunities in the subdivided race track of electrification and intelligent resonance. CMB International's main points are as follows: Looking ahead to 2026, the global technology industry will present a pattern of terminal demand differentiation and accelerated AI innovation Driven by rapid iteration of AI large models, the computing power industry chain continues to be prosperous, and the landing speed of new AI products on the end side (AI phones/AIPC/AI glasses) is accelerating. However, due to global macroeconomic uncertainty, the reduction of subsidies in China, and the impact of storage costs, demand for low-end consumer electronics is expected to be under short-term pressure. The bank believes that the expansion of computing power demand and the innovation cycle of end-side AI will be the core growth drivers and recommends focusing on two main lines: 1) AI computing power infrastructure: VR/ASIC architecture upgrades drive up ODM and components (interconnects/cooling/power supply) prices; 2) End-side AI: Folding iPhones and AI phones/glasses/PC products are expected to accelerate penetration, and companies such as Luxshare Precision Industry (002475.SZ), Hongteng Precision (06088), BYD ELECTRONIC (00285), Sunway Optical (02382), AAC TECH (02018), and Xiaomi Group (01810) are favored. Servers: General server recovery continues, VR/ASIC AI server iteration accelerates In 2026, the global server market will be dominated by AI infrastructure investments, with AI server shipments expected to grow by 50% year-on-year to 2.32 million units, presenting a pattern of "GPU/ASIC dual-drive": GB/VR iteration drive specification upgrades, ASIC self-developed acceleration brings value and volume improvements: 1) Interconnect: VR/ASIC architecture reshaping drives a doubling of value, connectors/cables/CPOs see breakthroughs; 2) Cooling: Single-chip TDP breakthrough of kilowatts drives comprehensive penetration of liquid cooling, and microchannel cover plates are expected to be mass-produced by 2027; 3) Power supply: HVDC/BBU will become standard, power supply components see price and quantity increases. Leading ODMs with "mechanical thermal" capabilities and core component suppliers such as liquid-cooled interconnect are expected to benefit, favoring Luxshare Precision Industry, Hongteng Precision, and BYD ELECTRONIC. Smartphones: Short-term pressure from storage price increases, focus on catalyzing folding iPhone/AI phone Affected by macroeconomic uncertainty, storage price increases, and the fading of subsidy dividends, it is expected that global smartphone shipments in 2026 will decrease by 5% year-on-year to 1.18 billion units, with low-end models being hit first. However, the high-end market remains resilient under the drive of AI innovation, and the bank expects Apple to have an innovative year, with iPhone 18 specification upgrades, the first folding screen iPhone, new smart home products, and Apple Intelligence iteration further consolidating its dominance in the high-end market. The Android camp is accelerating its transformation into AI phones, enhancing interactive experiences through end-side large models. It is recommended to focus on opportunities in optics (periscope/glass), structural components (titanium alloy/hinges), cooling (VC), and the context of storage price increases, focusing on Luxshare Precision Industry, AAC TECH, and Xiaomi Group. AR/VR: AI empowerment opens the era of intelligent glasses 2.0 The bank expects global AI glasses shipments to exceed 10 million units in 2026, becoming a core wearable category after TWS headphones. Technology giants are accelerating their deployments, with Meta deepening its social ecosystem through integrated software and hardware, while Google is building an ecosystem through the open Android XR platform. Looking ahead, AR glasses as the ultimate form of virtual and reality fusion will gradually unleash their potential as waveguide and Micro-LED/LCOS display technologies mature, with shipments expected to reach 32 million units by 2030. Manufacturers with core optical technologies (waveguides/camera modules) and assembly capabilities will benefit deeply from the industry explosion, favoring Sunway Optical, AAC TECH, and Q TECH. PC/Automotive Electronics: AIPC penetration rate expected to exceed 50%, L4+ intelligent driving development accelerates The global PC market, affected by the end of the Win11 replacement cycle and the soaring cost of storage, will face significant pressure, with the bank expecting global PC shipments to decrease slightly by 2% year-on-year to 275 million units. The highlight of the industry lies in the accelerated penetration of AIPC, with AIPC shipments expected to account for over 50% in 2026, becoming the mainstream standard. With the improvement of policies and regulations and the downward exploration of technical costs, the commercialization process of L4-level intelligent driving is expected to significantly accelerate. The bank is optimistic about the opportunities in the subdivided race track of electrification and intelligent resonance, including high-voltage/high-speed connectors, in-vehicle optics, intelligent cockpit displays, and domain controllers, favoring Luxshare Precision Industry, Hongteng Precision, BYD ELECTRONIC, Sunway Optical, AAC TECH, and BOE VARITRONIX (00710).