Tai Sin: Opportunities and challenges coexist in 2026. The Hang Seng Index is expected to challenge 28200 points in the first half of the year.

The DAH SING Group has released its 2026 economic and market outlook, stating that the global economy is seeking balance amidst policy adjustments and market structure changes, presenting multiple challenges and opportunities in the market outlook for 2026. The bank believes that Hong Kong's economic growth rate may reach close to 2.4% next year, with the Hang Seng Index potentially challenging 28200 points in the first half of the year, and Hong Kong property prices may rise by about 3%; while Mainland China continues to seek new growth drivers. DAH SING Group's Chief Economist and Strategist, Wen Jiawei, stated that recent Hong Kong stock valuations have rebounded, but may be influenced by external market fluctuations, potentially exacerbating risk aversion. If the Hang Seng Index falls below 24400 points in the short term, it may test 23500 points. However, continual inflows of southbound funds and improvements in corporate performance, if market sentiment stabilizes, the Hang Seng Index may potentially challenge 28200 points in the first half of next year. The outlook for innovation technology, high dividend stocks, and domestic consumption sectors may be relatively positive. Wen Jiawei mentioned that Hong Kong's external trade faces certain challenges, and the job market may be undergoing structural adjustments. The pressure on consumer and tourism-related industries is significant, the consumer outlook remains uncertain, and consumer goods prices still face downward pressure. As for the Mainland economy, Wen Jiawei believes that a trade agreement between China and the US, reducing some tariffs, could help reduce uncertainty. However, it should be noted that the Mainland real estate industry is currently relatively weak, and demand needs to improve, attention should be paid to whether there will be subsequent stimulus measures. The bank predicts that Mainland China's economic growth in 2026 may reach 4.5%.