JP Morgan reiterated its "overweight" rating on Marvell (MRVL.US): Microsoft Corporation and Amazon.com, Inc. orders are secured until 2026, market speculation is just "noise."

J.P. Morgan reiterated its "overweight" rating on Marvell Technology, Inc. (MRVL.US) with a target price of $90, slightly below the closing price of $92 on December 8th. Analyst Harlan Sur bluntly stated, "Despite the market noise, customer orders have not decreased at all." These words directly addressed recent speculation surrounding changes in the AI chip collaboration between Amazon.com, Inc. and Microsoft Corporation, which Sur believes is just "noise." During a closed-door meeting with company management, they provided the market with a "reassurance pill": AWS Trainium 3 XPU ASIC chips have successfully secured orders for the entire year of 2026; Microsoft Corporation's 3nm Maia AI XPU ASIC chips are also steadily progressing according to plan, with mass production expected to begin in the second half of 2026 and continue to ramp up until 2027. Furthermore, both parties have already started design work for the next generation of chips using 2nm technology. This means that the deep integration between the two cloud computing giants and Marvell in "multi-generation AI customized chips" has not only remained strong, but has also advanced into the research and development phase of the next generation of products. In addition to the main chip business, Marvell has also capitalized on the growth of its "accessory" business. Supporting chips for AI applications like SmartNIC and CXL controllers have been contributing to the company's revenue since 2025. The company expects that by 2028, relying solely on these "small components" will generate up to $2 billion in annual revenue, equivalent to creating another Marvell of the size in 2019. The optical networking business is also thriving. Next year, the 1.6T PAM4 DSP chip will be mass produced first by NVIDIA Corporation and Alphabet Inc. Class C, while the older 800G products will continue to increase steadily with new GPU/XPU projects. Marvell remains the top supplier of 1.6Tbps DSP chips, and the shipment volume is expected to be strong in the coming year. In the copper wire business, the AEC (active electric cable) DSP chip with a single-channel speed of 100G/200G has already achieved a revenue target of $100 million this year, and next year's performance is expected to at least double. In the longer-term "scale-up" network layout, the company aims to lock in potential market size of over $16 billion by 2030. With the self-developed Celestial fiber interconnect technology and UALink/ESUN switching chips, Marvell has seized the initiative and gained early positioning in the next-generation rack-level solutions of multiple cloud service providers, with related income expected to be realized starting from 2027. The management admitted that they are confused and somewhat frustrated by market doubts. However, the company is progressing steadily along the three paths of expanding orders, increasing production capacity, and innovating in research and development. The strong growth momentum exhibited by the "three engines" of AI computing, networking, and storage has provided them with ample confidence in their sustained high growth over the years. At the same time, J.P. Morgan also reminds investors once again: do not be distracted by short-term market noise. In the dual-track race of AI customized chips and optical networks, Marvell still holds the most difficult-to-replace entry ticket.