China's Trade Triumph: Exports Rebound Over 5%, But US Shipments Plunge Amid Trillion-Dollar Surplus

China’s export industry posted a solid rebound in November, outperforming most analyst forecasts even though shipments to the United States continued to fall sharply. Customs figures released Monday show that China has already surpassed its previous annual trade-surplus record.

Exports rose 5.9% from a year earlier to $330.3 billion, reversing the unexpected 1.1% decline recorded in October. This increase helped push China’s trade surplus for the first eleven months of the year to about $1.08 trillion, exceeding the $992 billion total reported for all of 2024, based on data from FactSet. Imports also improved, rising 1.9% to more than $218.6 billion, compared to the 1% gain the previous month, despite ongoing weakness in the domestic property sector that continues to suppress household and business spending.

The overall growth masks a pronounced slump in trade with the United States. Chinese exports to the U.S. dropped almost 29% from a year earlier, the eighth consecutive double-digit decline. For January through November, shipments to the American market were down 18.9%, while Chinese purchases of U.S. goods fell 13.2%. Even so, China redirected much of its output to other destinations, with strong increases in exports to the European Union (nearly 15%), Southeast Asia (over 8%), as well as to Africa and Latin America.

November’s data followed the completion of a one-year trade arrangement reached in South Korea in late October between U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping. Under the deal, the U.S. agreed to reduce certain tariffs, while China committed to easing restrictions on rare earth mineral exports. Economists warn that the positive effects of these changes are unlikely to be visible in the November numbers, noting that any boost “will likely emerge in the coming months,” according to ING’s chief economist for Greater China. Meanwhile, official surveys reported that Chinese factory activity contracted for an eighth consecutive month, leading analysts to caution that it is still too early to declare a sustained recovery in global demand. For instance, rare earth exports rose 24% to 5,494 tons in November, but soybean imports have only begun to inch toward the levels associated with China’s purchase pledges.

Despite the mixed conditions, most economists expect China to achieve its growth target of around 5% this year, helped in large part by exports. Chinese leadership has also indicated that advanced manufacturing will be a central focus in the next five-year economic strategy. Following a high-level meeting in October, officials convened again on Monday to plan the 2026 economic agenda. Global analysts remain cautious, with institutions such as BNP Paribas Asset Management pointing out that a stable trade backdrop is unlikely as long as China-U.S. relations remain in a “stalemate.” Others, however, predict that China will continue gaining ground in global commerce. Morgan Stanley, for example, projects China’s share of world exports to rise from roughly 15% today to about 16.5% by 2030, supported by its strengths in electric vehicles, robotics, batteries, and other advanced-technology industries.