Overnight US stocks | The three major stock indices fell together, with US bonds declining. The market is waiting quietly for the decision of the Federal Reserve.

On Monday, the three major indexes fell. The "Seven Giants of the US stock market" had mixed performances, with chip stocks rising. Investors are waiting for the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision this week. Although the market generally expects a 25 basis point rate cut, the not dovish enough remarks of "Federal Reserve Shadow Chairman" Hasset have dampened expectations of further easing next year, leading to a decline in all three major US stock indexes and a general decline in US bonds. [US Stocks] At the close, the Dow fell 215.67 points, or 0.45%, to 47,739.32 points; the Nasdaq fell 32.23 points, or 0.14%, to 23,545.90 points; and the S&P 500 fell 23.89 points, or 0.35%, to 6,846.51 points. Chip stocks rose, with Micron Technology, Inc. (MU.US) up more than 4%, Broadcom Inc. (AVGO.US) up nearly 3%, NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA.US) up almost 2%, and AMD (AMD.US) up over 1%. Paramount Dance announced a $108.4 billion acquisition of Warner Brothers Discovery, with both companies seeing gains. Data streaming company Confluent received a $11 billion acquisition offer from IBM, leading to a surge in stock price of over 29%. Crude oil fell by nearly 2%. [European Stocks] The German DAX30 index rose 17.87 points, or 0.07%, to 24,046.01 points; the UK FTSE 100 index fell 21.92 points, or 0.23%, to 9,645.09 points; the French CAC40 index fell 6.31 points, or 0.08%, to 8,108.43 points; the European Stoxx 50 index rose 0.42 points, or 0.01%, to 5,724.35 points; the Spanish IBEX35 index rose 23.70 points, or 0.14%, to 16,712.20 points; and the Italian FTSE MIB index rose 0.05 points, or 0.00%, to 43,432.82 points. [Asia-Pacific Stock Market] The Nikkei 225 index rose 0.18%, the KOSPI index rose 1.34%, the BSE SENSEX in India fell 0.71%, and the Composite Index in Indonesia rose 0.90%. [Foreign Exchange] The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures against six major currencies, rose 0.11% to 99.10. [Cryptocurrency] Cryptocurrency rose. Bitcoin rose 0.69% to $91,019, and Ethereum rose 2.36% to $3,133.09. [Precious Metals] COMEX gold futures fell 0.55% to $4,219.75 per ounce. Spot gold fell 0.15% to $4,190.76 per ounce. Spot silver fell 0.25% to $58.15 per ounce. [Crude Oil] WTI January crude oil futures fell nearly 2.00% to $58.88 per barrel. Brent February crude oil futures fell 1.98% to $62.49 per barrel. [Metals] LME copper futures rose $15 to $11,636 per ton. LME aluminum futures fell $10 to $2,888 per ton. LME zinc futures rose $23 to $3,121 per ton. LME lead futures fell $4 to $1,998 per ton. LME nickel futures fell $10 to $14,840 per ton. LME tin futures fell $184 to $39,884 per ton. LME cobalt futures remained flat at $52,220 per ton. [Macro News] US President Trump: will issue a single rule executive order on artificial intelligence this week. President Trump announced on social media on Monday that he will introduce the "Single Rule" (ONE RULE) executive order. He emphasized, "if we are to maintain a leading position in the field of AI, we must have only one set of guidelines." Trump explicitly stated that companies should not be forced to obtain separate approvals from each of the 50 states every time they conduct business, implying that the current state-level regulatory system has become too burdensome for companies. This executive order on artificial intelligence regulation aims to establish a unified federal regulatory framework and end the current situation where states pass separate laws. This measure will directly impact the compliance costs and expansion speed of technology companies in the field of AI. Wall Street's most optimistic forecast has arrived! Oppenheimer: the S&P 500 index will rise to 8,100 points next year. The bullish sentiment on US stocks on Wall Street has reached a new high, with Oppenheimer giving the most aggressive forecast on Wall Street. John Stoltzfus, Chief Investment Strategist at the company, predicts that driven by strong corporate profits and the resilience of the US economy, the S&P 500 index will climb to 8,100 points by 2026. This target implies an 18% increase from the current level of the S&P 500 index, making it the most optimistic forecast currently. The strategist points out that the optimistic outlook is mainly based on the continued resilience of US economic data and the performance of S&P 500 component stock companies, most of which have exceeded expectations this year, with expected corporate earnings growth of 12% next year. No dovish market expectations! Shadow Fed Chairman Hasset: it is irresponsible to announce the specific interest rate path for the next six months. On Monday local time, Kevin Hassett, Director of the White House National Economic Council, stated that it is "irresponsible" for the Federal Reserve to announce the specific interest rate policy path for the next six months in advance, emphasizing that decisions must be based on economic data. Hassett is one of the top candidates to succeed Powell as Federal Reserve Chairman, whose term will end in May next year. When asked how many rate cuts will be needed until 2026, Hassett stated, "I am not very willing to answer in terms of 'number of rate cuts,' but I can say that you need to focus on the data." Analysts claim that Hassett's latest remarks were not as dovish as expected, leading to decreased market expectations for Fed easing actions next year, with the latest forecast predicting two rate cuts until 2026, down from three rate cuts over a month ago. New York Fed: US consumer inflation expectations stable in November, worsening financial conditions. According to the New York Fed's consumer expectations survey, consumer expectations for the inflation rate in the next year remained stable at 3.2% in November, compared to 3.24% the previous month. According to the report, "expectations on changes in medical care costs reached the highest level since the data series began in January 2014." "The average expectation for the likelihood of unemployment in the next 12 months has decreased by 0.2 percentage points to 13.8%, the lowest since December 2024." "People's perception of the current financial condition of the household compared to a year ago has significantly deteriorated, with a higher proportion of respondents saying that their household financial condition is worse than a year ago." Consumers expect gasoline prices to rise by 4.09% in the next year; food prices to rise by 5.87%; medical costs to rise by 10.08%; college education costs to rise by 8.39%; and rent to rise by 8.27%. The proportion of consumers who expect to be unable to pay the minimum repayment amount in the next three months has increased from 13.1% in October to 13.7%. A 90-year precedent is about to be overturned, and the independence of the Federal Reserve is also at risk? The US Supreme Court hints at supporting Trump's dismissal of FTC commissioner. On Monday local time, the US Supreme Court signaled a possible reshaping of the federal power structure, raising concerns about whether the supposedly politically independent Federal Reserve can maintain its independence. In oral arguments regarding the dismissal of Federal Trade Commission (FTC) commissioner Rebecca Kelly Slaughter by Trump, the conservative majority-led majority faction of the Supreme Court questioned a 90-year-old precedent that protects the independence of federal government agencies, suggesting support for the president's control over several traditionally independent federal agencies. Six conservative justices of the Supreme Court expressed concern about Congressional creation of agencies with the power to exercise administrative power without being accountable to the president. However, one conservative Justice, Brett Kavanaugh, expressed "concerns" about weakening the independence of the Federal Reserve, hinting at strengthening the exception clause seemingly established by the court in May for the Federal Reserve. This statement did not fully allay concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve. The court will hear a case in January where Trump is accused of firing Federal Reserve director Lisa Cook on grounds of mortgage fraud. Stock News Netflix (NFLX.US) was beaten to it! Paramount Dance (PSKY.US) acquires Warner Brothers Discovery (WBD.US). After Trump raised antitrust concerns about Netflix's acquisition of Warner Brothers Discovery, Paramount CEO David Ellison, son of Oracle Corporation CEO with close ties to Trump, made a hostile bid directly to the shareholders bypassing the Warner board. Paramount announced an all-cash acquisition offer, proposing to acquire all of Warner's issued shares at a price of $30 per share, with an enterprise value of $108.4 billion. Paramount stated that the proposed transaction covers all of Warner's businesses. Paramount claims that its bid is more attractive to shareholders compared to Netflix's proposal and is more likely to pass regulatory scrutiny. Paramount stated that its offer provides an additional $18 billion in cash compared to Netflix's offer. On December 5th, Netflix announced an agreement with Warner to acquire its TV, film production studio, and streaming business for a total price of $827 billion. At the close on Monday, Warner rose 4.41%, Paramount rose over 9%, and Netflix fell 3.44%. Dispelling rumors, Apple Inc.'s (AAPL.US) key chip executive: will not resign in the near future. Apple Inc.'s chip business head Johny Srouji stated on Monday that he will continue to stay at Apple Inc. for the time being. Previously, the market had concerns that his potential resignation could exacerbate the instability of Apple Inc.'s top management. Srouji is considered one of Apple Inc.'s most important executives, responsible for the company's hardware engineering team, including chip development. Srouji has led Apple Inc.'s strategic transition to self-developed chips and is highly respected in the industry. According to reports, over the weekend, media reported that Srouji had discussed the possibility of leaving Apple Inc., indicating that he might move to another tech company. As Apple Inc.'s Senior Vice President of Hardware Technology, Srouji has reportedly told CEO Cook that he is seriously considering resigning in the near future. Analysts suggest that in light of recent resignations of several high-ranking executives at Apple Inc., raising concerns about the stability of the company's top management, Srouji's statement is particularly important. IBM (IBM.US) continues AI transformation, to acquire Confluent (CFLT.US) for $11 billion. IBM announced on Monday that the company will acquire data streaming company Confluent at a price of $31 per share. The enterprise value, including debt, is $11 billion. The two parties expect the transaction to be completed by the middle of 2026. This is one of IBM's largest acquisitions to date, and a significant move in the enterprise software space amidst the need for real-time processing of tasks for AI tools. Confluent's technology helps manage the real-time data streams needed for large artificial intelligence models, rather than transferring data through more cumbersome batch processing methods. The AI boom has led to increased demand for their technology in industries such as retail, technology, and financial services. According to regulatory filings, if the transaction fails or is terminated, IBM will pay Confluent a $453.6 million breakup fee. Analysts say that this acquisition "may significantly improve IBM's AI product portfolio and further drive sales growth in its software division." At the close on Monday, Confluent soared by over 29%, while IBM rose by 0.40%.