Cui Dongshu: In October, the penetration rate of new energy commercial vehicles rose to 33%, with buses leading the way. The potential of the truck market is huge.

Cui Dongshu stated in an article that in October 2025, the market penetration rate of commercial vehicles of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation reached 33%, an increase of 8 percentage points compared to October of the previous year, which was 25%. Among them, the penetration rate of new energy trucks was 24%, and that of new energy buses was 72%, both showing significant improvements compared to the same period. From January to October, the penetration rate of new energy commercial vehicles increased by 7 percentage points year-on-year, outperforming the growth of passenger vehicles. The performance of the domestic market for new energy commercial vehicles under policy promotion was relatively strong. From 2019 to 2021, the overall penetration rate of new energy commercial vehicles was around 3%. It reached 9% in 2022, 11% in 2023, 20% for the full year of 2024, and a good level of 27% for the period of January to October 2025. This reflects the strong growth trend of new energy commercial vehicles. According to the data from the National Financial Bureau's compulsory insurance, the domestic commercial vehicle compulsory insurance data showed strong growth in 2025. Due to the strong growth of new energy vehicles and the promotion of vehicle renewal policies, the overall performance of new energy commercial vehicles in 2025 has shown a rapid upward trend. From March to October, the growth of new energy vehicles was strong. In October, domestic sales of commercial vehicles reached 250,000 units, an increase of 12% year-on-year, but a decrease of 14% compared to the previous month. From January to October 2025, domestic sales of commercial vehicles reached 2.55 million units, an increase of 10% year-on-year. In October 2025, the sales of new energy commercial vehicles reached 82,000 units, an increase of 49% year-on-year, but a decrease of 14% compared to the previous month. After the policy tailwind at the end of 2024, the performance of new energy vehicles in January 2025 was relatively weak, but saw a significant increase year-on-year from February to September, cumulatively reaching 680,000 units by October, a 56% increase year-on-year. 1. Analysis of national commercial vehicle market compulsory insurance data The commercial vehicle market in 2025 showed a trend of continuous strength from February to October due to the impact of the Chinese New Year in January. The monthly data for commercial vehicles in January showed a significant decrease, with sales of 237,000 units in February, which was average for the month historically. From March to May, commercial vehicle sales remained relatively stable, but from June to October, commercial vehicles were driven by new energy trends, with a particularly strong performance in September and October, with the latter setting a recent historical high. In recent years, the domestic commercial vehicle market has shown a rapid decline in demand. From the high sales volumes in 2020, to the peak decline in 2021, the market was in a trough in 2022-2023, with domestic insurance achieving nearly 2.85 million units in 2024, almost flat year-on-year. In October 2025, domestic sales of commercial vehicles reached 250,000 units, up 12% year-on-year, but down 14% compared to the previous month. From January to October 2025, domestic sales of commercial vehicles reached 2.55 million units, an increase of 10% year-on-year. Compared to the stable period of commercial vehicles since 2022, this year has achieved a good level of sales, reaching a near-high level in recent years. 2. Analysis of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation's commercial vehicle market sales In 2025, the overall performance of new energy commercial vehicles showed a rapid upward trend. From March to October, the growth of new energy vehicles was strong. The sales of new energy vehicles in October 2025 quickly reached a high of 82,000 units, indicating strong demand for new energy vehicles. The sales of new energy commercial vehicles in 2024 were 579,000 units, an 84% increase year-on-year. In October 2025, the sales of new energy commercial vehicles reached 82,000 units, an increase of 49% year-on-year, but a decrease of 14% compared to the previous month. After the policy tailwind at the end of 2024, the performance of new energy vehicles in January 2025 was relatively weak, but saw a significant increase year-on-year from February to September, cumulatively reaching 680,000 units by October, a 56% increase year-on-year. 3. Penetration rate of new energy commercial vehicles In 2024, the penetration rate of new energy commercial vehicles reached 20%, showing good improvement compared to 2023. In October 2025, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles reached 33%, an increase of 8 percentage points compared to October of the previous year, which was 25%, demonstrating a relatively strong performance. From 2019 to 2021, the overall penetration rate of new energy commercial vehicles was around 3%. It reached 9% in 2022, 11% in 2023, 20% for the full year of 2024, and a good level of 27% for the period of January to October 2025, reflecting the strong growth trend of new energy commercial vehicles. In October 2025, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles in commercial vehicles reached 33%, an increase of 8 percentage points compared to the same period, and an increase of 7 percentage points year-on-year from January to October, outperforming the growth of passenger vehicles. 4. Analysis of commercial vehicle market changes The structure of truck and bus sales in the commercial vehicle market remains relatively stable. Heavy trucks and light trucks in the truck segment have performed well, with improvements in the medium-heavy segment after a deep adjustment last year due to the effects of scrap and renewal policies. In the bus segment, the trend for light buses was strong, with the electrification leading to light buses replacing microbuses as the market leaders. Large and medium-sized buses performed relatively weakly at the beginning of 2025, with stable trends in fuel-powered large and medium-sized buses, and average performance in new energy large and medium-sized buses. The penetration rate of new energy trucks was 24%, and that of new energy buses was 72%, showing significant improvements compared to the same period. The penetration rate of electric vehicles in heavy trucks, light trucks, and large and medium-sized buses has shown significant increases. 5. Analysis of changes in the commercial vehicle competitive structure Light truck manufacturers are the main supporters of sales in the commercial vehicle market, with Foton and Wuling being the main players in commercial trucks, showing strong sales in both light trucks and buses. Sinotruk Jinan Truck is also strong in heavy and light trucks. 6. Regional market structure of medium and heavy trucks Overall, the market share of medium and heavy trucks is high in the North China region, but in the past two years, South China and Southwest China have shown continuous strength. New energy heavy trucks have performed well in Beijing, Tianjin, Shanghai, South China, the central Yellow River region, and Southwest China, with rapid increase in penetration rates. The penetration rate in these regions has increased rapidly. The best-performing companies in the domestic medium and heavy truck market should be FAW Jiefang Group, Sinotruk Jinan Truck, Foton, Dongfeng Motor, etc. The overall performance of heavy trucks remains relatively stable, with some second-tier companies like XCMG showing an increase in the penetration rate of electric vehicles. The export strength was strong last year, with more new energy vehicles domestically this year and a temporary decline in fuel-powered vehicles in October. 7. Regional market structure of light trucks The market share of light trucks is higher in the eastern region, especially in North China, South China, and Southwest China. The performance of light trucks in South China and Southwest China has been gradually strengthening. The main market for new energy light trucks is in the eastern and South China markets, with strong performances in the new energy sector. Sales of fuel-powered light trucks have shrunk in cities like Beijing, Tianjin, and Shanghai due to road restrictions. The main manufacturers of light trucks in the domestic market are Beiqi Foton, SAIC-GM Wuling, Sinotruk Jinan Truck, Anhui Jianghuai Automobile Group Corp., Ltd., and Dongfeng Motor, with Wuling gradually moving up from micro-vans to light trucks, showing relatively strong performance in the market. The main players in new energy light trucks are Geely Auto (00175), with Chery Auto (09973) showing strong performance in the new energy light truck segment in the past two years. 8. Regional market structure of light buses The sales area of domestic light buses is mainly in the economically developed regions of East China and South China. The central Yangtze River region had a higher market share this year. The demand for new energy light buses is mainly in developed regions, with strong performance of new energy vehicles in South China. Due to restrictions on licenses, the sales of fuel-powered light buses in cities like Beijing, Tianjin, and Shanghai have declined. The main manufacturers of light buses are Jiangling Motors Corporation, SAIC-GM Wuling, SAIC Maxus, Chongqing Changan Automobile, etc., with emerging forces like Geely Commercial Vehicle showing strong performance in the new energy light bus segment. In recent period, Wuling's electric light bus has been competitive. 9. Regional market structure of large and medium-sized buses The market for large and medium-sized buses has shown strong performance recently, with significant fluctuations in regional market demand. The differentiation between new energy policies for large and medium-sized buses and market demand for fuel-powered vehicles due to policy subsidies and market promotion. The regions with high penetration rates of new energy large and medium-sized buses are primarily in the southern regions, with the Northeast and North China regions starting public transport initiatives earlier this year based on subsidies and policies. The main manufacturers of large and medium-sized buses are Yutong, Xiamen Golden Dragon, Suzhou Golden Dragon, etc., with strong performances in traditional fuel-powered buses like Yutong and Golden Dragon, with good performance in companies like Shanghai Shenwo in October. Companies with high penetration rates of new energy large and medium-sized buses mainly belong to second-tier manufacturers, with the development of new energy vehicles complementing their fuel-powered vehicle market, which is performing well.