India has a bumper harvest + the Philippines extends import ban Asian rice prices are expected to remain under pressure.

The price of Asian rice is expected to further decrease, as India's rice harvest has increased ample global supply, while the Philippines, the world's largest rice importer, has restricted overseas rice purchases to support its own farmers. According to data from the Thai Rice Exporters Association, as of October 22, the wholesale price of 5% broken white rice in Thailand has dropped to $351 per ton, the lowest level since September 2015. The Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) of the United Nations predicts that global rice production in the 2025-26 season will reach a record high of 556.4 million tons. Farmers in South Asia began harvesting at the end of September and are expected to complete all harvesting work by the end of this year. Nitin Gupta, Deputy General Manager of Olam Agri India Pvt., a rice exporter in India, pointed out that some rice importing countries (especially in West Africa) currently have enough rice stocks to meet three to five months of consumption needs, leading to a growing surplus in the market that will continue to depress rice prices in Asia. Nitin Gupta also stated last week that the prices of white rice, parboiled rice, and broken rice provided by milling factories in Thailand, Pakistan, and Myanmar are at least 3% cheaper than those supplied by India. Although it takes time for export prices to transmit to the retail end, the price drops from major supplying countries like Thailand are expected to lower the cost of staple food in Asia, Africa, and some parts of the Middle East. Meanwhile, the Philippines, as the world's largest rice importer, announced on Tuesday that it will extend the rice import ban until the end of 2025 to protect local farmers from the impact of low-priced imported rice. Rohith Singh, Head of the Grain Supply Department in Telangana, India, responsible for rice exports, stated: "We are working on expanding into new markets to absorb the surplus supply and support farmers." He added that officials from the state had held talks with buyers from Benin, Kuwait, and North Africa last week. The abundant global supply has caused some buyers to adopt a more cautious approach in their procurement strategies. Dharmendra Rawat, Senior Business Development Manager at Invictus Trading Fze, based in Dubai, stated that the company plans to purchase rice from India in batches rather than all at once, as prices are expected to continue to decline. Former Senior Economist at the International Rice Research Institute, Samarendu Mohanty, stated: "Due to excessive rice production in India, the bearish market trend will continue." He added that due to oversupply and weak overseas demand, domestic rice prices in India may further decrease by 10% to 15%.