The duration of the US government shutdown has equaled the longest in history. Election results in cities like New York may be the key to breaking the deadlock.
The current government shutdown crisis in the United States has now entered its sixth week, tying the record for longest duration.
The current shutdown crisis in the United States has entered its sixth week, tying the record for the longest duration. The election results on Tuesday in New York City, New Jersey, Virginia, and other places are seen as a key factor that could potentially change the political dynamics in Washington and break the budget deadlock. With the elections over, both parties will now focus on next year's midterm elections to compete for control of Congress. However, there is uncertainty about whether the election results will lead to compromise or deepen partisan divisions.
Some Republicans claim that the Democrats are refusing to compromise because they are afraid of angering their progressive voters before the elections. But if the Democrats win big in this election, it could further embolden them and prolong the standoff. Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, a Republican, expressed optimism on Monday that an agreement could be reached this week to end the shutdown. However, he also admitted that the short-term funding bill that the House passed but was repeatedly rejected by Senate Democrats, with an expiration date of November 21, can no longer address the current situation.
McConnell plans to push for a longer-term temporary funding bill this week, to give both sides room to negotiate a full-year budget. This also means that the Democrats will gain new leverage and may demand things like back pay for furloughed federal employees and protection for positions cut by the Trump administration. At the same time, Democrats insist on including a provision to extend the period for Affordable Care Act (ACA) premium subsidies in the agreement. These subsidies entered the open enrollment phase on November 1st, and if they are not extended, 22 million policyholders may face the risk of increased health insurance premiums starting in January next year. Schumer reiterated, "We want to reduce the burden of healthcare costs for Americans, reopen the government, and extend health insurance subsidies."
The complexity of the deadlock is also due to the fact that the House has not resumed its sessions. House Speaker Paul Ryan has not called the House to vote since September 19. If the Senate passes a new temporary funding bill, the House must still reconvene to approve it, further delaying the negotiation process. Republicans have a slight advantage in the House, and they openly oppose including the extension of health insurance subsidies in the temporary bill. Ryan responded on Monday, "Republicans refuse to accept the absurd demands of Democrats."
As the shutdown continues, the impact on people's lives and the economy is gradually expanding. Airports in many parts of the US are experiencing flight delays due to understaffing, and Transportation Secretary Elaine Chao warned that if aviation safety is threatened, the possibility of closing US airspace is not ruled out. Meanwhile, the Trump administration indicated on Monday that it would only pay 50% of the November food assistance amount, affecting about 42 million people who rely on this subsidy. The normal distribution requires 8 to 9 billion US dollars, but with emergency funds of only 4.65 billion US dollars, it is not enough to cover the full demand.
Economists warn that if the shutdown continues, it could lead to more serious airline and logistics chaos during the holiday season. Delayed government contracts will drag down GDP growth and may prompt rating agencies to reconsider the US sovereign credit rating. Despite pressure from Wall Street and the business community to quickly restore government operations, there are still significant differences in the demands of both sides, and the prospects for negotiations remain unclear.
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